Liga MX
América - Toluca
04/19/2026, 03:10 AM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.4
1.4
1:1
14%0:1
11%0:0
10%1:2
9%0:2
9%What influences the xG?
América
Toluca
League
The Lab
- 1Toluca: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Toluca with Luan: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Toluca: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Toluca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5América: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
30%
Away Win
44%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
56%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Toluca is the favorite with a 44% higher win probability according to mathematical analysis
- Toluca leads the league with 37 points and has shown a stronger offense this season with 1.89 goals per game compared to América
- América's recent goal production averages 1.2 goals, lower than their season average of 1.6 goals
Risk Factors
- América has recently shown a negative trend in goal production, averaging 1.2 goals which is below their season average of 1.6 goals
- Toluca also shows a negative trend in goal production, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 2.2 goals
- América has significant absentees: V. Dávila Zavala (Knee Injury) and D. Espinoza Acosta (Torn Lateral Collateral Ligament)
Overview
América (4th place, 34 points) hosts Toluca (1st place, 37 points) in a Liga MX clash
Kick-off is on April 19, 2026, 4:10 AM
This top match promises excitement in the fight for the league title
Form
América's current form (WWLDD) shows 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games
Their last match ended in a draw, followed by another draw
Toluca's form is WDDLD, consisting of 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 fixtures
Their last match also ended in a draw
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
América scored an average of 1.52 goals per game and conceded 1.03 goals per game over the season
At home, they scored 1.56 goals and conceded 0.83 goals per home game
Toluca shows a stronger offense with an average of 1.89 goals per game and a solid defense with 0.89 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Toluca scores 1.86 goals and concedes 0.93 goals per game
América kept 11 clean sheets this season, and Toluca kept 13
Both teams scored in 17 of América's games, and in 20 of Toluca's games
América's goal production is stagnant (1.2 on average recently), season average is 1.6
Toluca's goal production is also stagnant (1.2 on average recently), season average is 2.2
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, América secured 2 wins and Toluca also claimed 2 wins
1 match ended in a draw
América scored 5 goals, while Toluca managed 4 goals
The last encounter on November 09, 2025, saw Toluca win 2:0
The recent head-to-head record is even
Key Players
América's top three attackers are Brian Rodríguez with 10 goals and 6 assists, Álex Zendejas with 8 goals and 5 assists, and Raphael Veiga with 2 goals and 2 assists
Brian Rodríguez shows stable form, Álex Zendejas is in a declining form, Raphael Veiga is in stable form
Not in the starting lineup are Patricio Salas (2G/2A), Ramón Juárez (2G/0A), Kevin Álvarez (1G/1A), and Érick Sánchez (2G/0A)
For Toluca, Paulinho with 21 goals and 4 assists, Alexis Vega with 4 goals and 10 assists, and Jesús Angulo with 7 goals and 4 assists are the key offensive players
Paulinho is in a declining form, Alexis Vega shows rising form, Jesús Angulo is in rising form
Not in the starting lineup are Helinho (9G/6A), Antonio Briseño (2G/1A), and Sebastián Córdova (0G/2A)
Goalkeepers
América's goalkeeper is Rodolfo Cota
América recorded 11 clean sheets this season
Toluca's goalkeeper is Luis García
Toluca achieved 13 clean sheets this season
Influences
América scores an average of 1.56 goals at home and concedes 0.83 goals per home game
Toluca scores 1.86 goals away and concedes 0.93 goals per away game