Liga MX
Atlético San Luis - Pumas UNAM
04/18/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.1
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
14%0:1
12%1:0
9%0:2
9%What influences the xG?
Atlético San Luis
Pumas UNAM
League
The Lab
- 1Pumas UNAM: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Atlético San Luis with Eduardo Águila: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Pumas UNAM: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 4Pumas UNAM with Rubén Duarte Sánchez: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
27%
Draw
33%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
73%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Pumas UNAM is in good form (3 wins, 2 draws) and is significantly higher in the Liga MX table (4th place) than Atlético San Luis (14th place)
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Pumas UNAM with a probability of 40%, compared to 27% for a home win
- Pumas UNAM shows a consistently strong offense (Avg. 1.59 goals per game), while Atlético San Luis' recent goal production is below their season average (1.0 vs. 1.5)
Risk Factors
- Atlético San Luis concedes an average of 1.71 goals per home game this season
- Atlético San Luis averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Overview
Atlético San Luis (14th place, 15 points) will host Pumas UNAM (4th place, 27 points) in Liga MX. The match is scheduled for April 18, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Pumas UNAM enter this encounter as favorites and will aim to consolidate their position in the upper half of the table.
Form
Atlético San Luis shows mixed form with LDLWD in their last five matches, which translates to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last game ended in a draw. Pumas UNAM, on the other hand, is unbeaten in their last five games with WDWDW, recording 3 wins and 2 draws. The visitors' form curve is stable, while Atlético San Luis has shown a slight decline recently. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Atlético San Luis averages 1.48 goals scored per game and concedes 1.68 goals. At home, they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded. Pumas UNAM is stronger offensively with an average of 1.59 goals per game but also concedes 1.34 goals. Away from home, Pumas UNAM averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 21 of San Luis' 31 games and in 22 of Pumas' 32 games. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 of San Luis' games and 16 of Pumas' games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético San Luis secured 2 wins and Pumas UNAM achieved 3 wins. The goal difference stands at 8:10 in favor of Pumas UNAM. The last encounter was won by Pumas UNAM with a score of 1:0 on October 23, 2025. Pumas UNAM has a slight edge in recent direct matchups.
Key Players
For Atlético San Luis, João Pedro with 24 season goals, Sébastien Salles-Lamonge with 5 goals and 6 assists, and Sebastián Pérez Bouquet with 2 goals and 3 assists are key players. For Pumas UNAM, Juninho stands out with 6 goals and 3 assists, Álvaro Angulo with 6 goals and 2 assists, and Robert Morales with 5 goals and 1 assist.
Goalkeepers
Atlético San Luis' goalkeeper, Andrés Sánchez, made 29 appearances and kept 6 clean sheets. For Pumas UNAM, Keylor Navas played in 30 games and achieved 8 clean sheets. Both goalkeepers show a solid season performance.
Influences
Atlético San Luis has averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded in home games. Pumas UNAM averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded in away games. No data is available for weather or pitch-specific influences.