Liga MX
Cruz Azul - Tijuana
04/18/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.6
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Cruz Azul
Tijuana
League
The Lab
- 1Cruz Azul with Andrés Montaño: 8.3 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Tijuana with Frank Boya: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Cruz Azul: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Tijuana: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Tijuana: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
27%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Strong Home Offense: Cruz Azul averages 1.79 goals at home, facing an away-vulnerable Tijuana defense that concedes 2.29 goals per game
- Tactical Superiority: Cruz Azul showed an average of 6.6 shots on target in their last 5 games and dominated possession
- Mathematical Prediction: The pipeline analysis indicates a 56% probability for a Cruz Azul home win
Risk Factors
- Tijuana's defense is extremely vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.29 goals per away game
- Tijuana averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games (average)
- Cruz Azul's goal production is stagnant (1.6) compared to their season average (1.9)
Overview
Cruz Azul (3rd place, 35 points) host Tijuana (7th place, 24 points) in Liga MX on April 18, 2026, 6:00 PM. The hosts are favorites, as the mathematical analysis shows a home win probability of 56%. Cruz Azul is expected to score around 1.71 goals, while Tijuana is projected to score 0.86 goals.
Form
Cruz Azul's form across all competitions is WDDLD. The team recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches. Tijuana shows a form of LWLWW in all competitions, with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five games. Cruz Azul's last five Liga MX matches show 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss. Tijuana achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five Liga MX matches. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Cruz Azul averages 1.77 goals scored per game and concedes 1.11 goals. They kept 10 clean sheets and had over 2.5 goals in 19 matches. Tijuana averages 1.47 goals scored per game and concedes 1.29 goals. They kept 12 clean sheets and had over 2.5 goals in 18 matches. At home, Cruz Azul scores 1.79 goals and concedes 0.95 goals. Away, Tijuana scores 1.43 goals and concedes an alarming 2.29 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul recorded 3 home wins and Tijuana had 2 away wins. Cruz Azul scored a total of 9 goals, and Tijuana scored 7 goals in these encounters. The last meeting was won by Tijuana on September 29, 2025, with a score of 2:0. Overall, Cruz Azul dominates the recent direct duels.
Key Players
For Cruz Azul, Gabriel FernĂĄndez (13 goals, 7 assists) and Carlos RodrĂguez (7 goals, 5 assists) are key performers. Carlos Rotondi contributed 4 goals and 5 assists and shows a rising form. For Tijuana, Kevin Castañeda is the top scorer with 13 goals and 7 assists and is in rising form. Ramiro Ărciga contributed 3 goals and 7 assists, while Mourad El Ghezouani scored 4 goals and 1 assist. Not nominated for Cruz Azul's starting lineup are JosĂ© Paradela (8 goals, 7 assists) and NicolĂĄs Ibåñez (2 goals, 1 assist). For Tijuana, Alan Vega (0 goals, 6 assists) and Unai Bilbao (2 goals, 0 assists) are not nominated.
Goalkeepers
Cruz Azul's goalkeeper, Kevin Mier, had 10 clean sheets in 17 season appearances. Antonio RodrĂguez, Tijuana's goalkeeper, played in 34 matches and kept 12 clean sheets.
Influences
Cruz Azul shows strong offensive performance at home with an average of 1.79 goals scored and defensive stability with 0.95 goals conceded. Tijuana, on the other hand, is defensively weak away from home, conceding an average of 2.29 goals.