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Liga MX

Mazatlán - Querétaro

04/18/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Mazatlán
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Querétaro
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
MAZQUE

Mazatlán

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.78
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.06

Querétaro

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.46
Attack weakness (0.56x league average)
-0.18
Rising form (1.7 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Jhojan Julio not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Querétaro with Jean Unjanque: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Mazatlán with Billy Arce: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Querétaro: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Mazatlán: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Querétaro: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

33%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: A home win is calculated with a 34% probability, a draw with 33%, and an away win with 33%
  • Form advantage: Querétaro shows significantly better form with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 games compared to Mazatlán (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
  • Offensive improvement: Querétaro is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 1.7 goals per game than their season average (1.1)
Risk Factors
  • Querétaro concedes an average of 2.8 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
  • Mazatlán concedes an average of 1.84 goals per game (goalsConcededAvg)
  • The pipeline prediction indicates a very tight result with no clear favorite
Overview

Mazatlán (16th place, 14 points) hosts Querétaro (12th place, 20 points) in a Liga MX match on April 17, 2026, 8:00 PM

The hosts are trying to move out of the relegation zone

Querétaro aims to close the gap to the playoff spots

Form

Mazatlán's recent form in their last five matches is WLDLL

This translates to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Querétaro, on the other hand, shows better form with DDWDW in their last five games

This means 2 wins and 3 draws without a loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Mazatlán scores an average of 1.16 goals per game and concedes 1.84 goals

At home, they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

Querétaro averages 1.03 goals scored and 1.52 goals conceded

Away from home, Querétaro scores 1.0 goals and concedes 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 23 of Mazatlán's matches, while this happened in 14 of Querétaro's games

Mazatlán achieved 2 clean sheets in 31 games, while Querétaro kept 8 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, the record is even with 2 wins for Mazatlán and 2 wins for Querétaro

One match ended in a draw

The goal difference in these games is 7:4 in favor of Mazatlán

Querétaro won the last encounter 1-0 on November 2, 2025

Key Players

For Mazatlán, Josué Ovalle (5 goals, 1 assist) and Brian Rubio (2 goals) are in good form

Facundo Almada contributed 6 goals and 2 assists

For Querétaro, Alí Ávila with 9 goals and Mateo Coronel with 5 goals are key attacking players

Santiago Homenchenko also showed goal-scoring ability with 6 goals

Goalkeepers

Mazatlán's goalkeeper Ricardo Rodríguez has scored no goals or assists in 14 season appearances

Mazatlán achieved 2 clean sheets this season

Querétaro's goalkeeper José Hernández, who had no goals or assists in 10 season appearances, helped his team to 8 clean sheets

Influences

Mazatlán scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.33 goals at home

Querétaro scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes 2.8 goals per game away from home

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