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Liga MX

Santos Laguna - Atlas

04/19/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Santos Laguna
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Atlas
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

1:0

9%

0:1

8%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SLATL

Santos Laguna

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Bruno Amione not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Haret Ortega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

Atlas

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.67
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (0.7 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.21
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.03
Gaddi Aguirre on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos Laguna: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Santos Laguna with Kevin Oswaldo Picón Álvarez: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Atlas with Jorge RodrĂ­guez: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Santos Laguna: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Atlas: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

31%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Atlas' significant defensive vulnerability in away games, conceding an average of 2.82 goals per match
  • Contrasting recent form trends: Santos Laguna shows a positive recent form trend, while Atlas has a negative trend with current goal production at 0.7 goals, below their season average of 1.4
  • The mathematical analysis indicates a very balanced encounter with Santos Laguna having a 37% chance of winning, a draw at 31%, and Atlas at 33%
Risk Factors
  • Atlas's high average of 2.82 goals conceded per away game this season
  • Limited data availability for total duels in the last 5 games for both teams
Overview

Santos Laguna (11th place, 20 points) host Atlas (10th place, 19 points) in a Liga MX clash on April 20, 2026, 12:00 AM

Both teams are in the mid-to-lower half of the table, making this a crucial match to improve their standings

Form

Santos Laguna's recent form across all competitions is mixed with 'WLWDL' (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Their last match was a loss

Atlas shows a struggling form of 'LDDLD' (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), with their last game ending in a draw

Santos Laguna recorded wins against Puebla (2-1) and Tijuana (2-1) in their last five matches

Atlas secured draws against Monterrey (0-0), Querétaro (0-0), and Toluca (1-1) in this period

Statistics

Santos Laguna averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded in home games this season

Atlas demonstrates a clear weakness in away defense, conceding an average of 2.82 goals per away game, while scoring 1.18 goals

Across all matches this season, Santos Laguna has kept 5 clean sheets, and Atlas has achieved 7 clean sheets

Both teams have seen both teams score in 20 of Santos Laguna's games and 17 of Atlas's games

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, Atlas holds a slight historical advantage with 2 wins compared to Santos Laguna's 1 win, and 2 matches ending in a draw

Atlas has scored 6 goals, while Santos Laguna scored 4 goals in these matchups

The last direct encounter, on September 14, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw

Atlas has shown recent dominance in these historical matchups

Key Players

For Santos Laguna, attacker Lucas Di Yorio contributed 5 goals and 3 assists this season, adding 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games

Midfielder Ezequiel Bullaude has 5 goals and 1 assist this season, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 appearances

Midfielder Fran Villalba recorded 3 goals and 2 assists this season

For Atlas, attacker Diego GonzĂĄlez leads with 6 goals and 6 assists this season

Attacker Arturo GonzĂĄlez has 5 goals this season

Midfielder Paulo RamĂ­rez has 2 goals this season, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Santos Laguna's goalkeeper Carlos Acevedo has made 31 appearances this season, keeping 5 clean sheets

For Atlas, Camilo Vargas has played 28 games and recorded 7 clean sheets, indicating a slightly stronger performance in preventing goals

Influences

Santos Laguna averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded in home games this season

In contrast, Atlas has struggled significantly in away matches, conceding an average of 2.82 goals per game

This highlights a defensive vulnerability on the road and suggests a potential home advantage for Santos Laguna

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