Liga MX
Atlético San Luis - Santos Laguna
04/23/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.1
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
13%1:0
11%0:1
11%2:1
7%What influences the xG?
Atlético San Luis
Santos Laguna
League
The Lab
- 1Santos Laguna: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Santos Laguna with Bruno Amione: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Santos Laguna: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 4Atlético San Luis with Santiago Muñóz: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
33%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Away defense weakness: Santos Laguna concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game
- Head-to-head record: Atlético San Luis recently dominated with 4 wins in 5 direct encounters
- Balanced prognosis: Mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with only minor differences in win probabilities
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Santos Laguna had only 4 days of rest since their last match
- Declining goal production: Atlético San Luis's goal production has recently dropped to 1.0 goals, compared to a season average of 1.4 goals
- Negative form trends: Both teams show negative form trends according to advanced statistics
Overview
Atlético San Luis (15th place, 16 points) host Santos Laguna (11th place, 20 points) in Liga MX
Kick-off is on April 23, 2026, 3:00 AM CEST
The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with a 34% home win probability and a 33% away win probability
Form
Atlético San Luis's form in all competitions is DLWDL
The team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches
Atlético San Luis's goal production has recently stalled (1.0 goals), with a season average of 1.4 goals
Santos Laguna's form in all competitions is LWDLL
The team achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches
Santos Laguna's goal production has also stalled (1.0 goals), with a season average of 1.2 goals
Statistics
Atlético San Luis scores an average of 1.4 goals per home game and concedes 1.73 goals
Both teams scored in 21 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 matches
Santos Laguna scores an average of 1.21 goals away and concedes 3.0 goals per game
Santos Laguna recorded both teams scoring in 20 matches and over 2.5 goals in 23 matches
The mathematical model predicts over 2.5 goals will be scored with a 36% probability
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters, Atlético San Luis won 4 times, while Santos Laguna won 1 time
There were no draws between the teams
Atlético San Luis scored a total of 13 goals, Santos Laguna 6 goals
Atlético San Luis won the last encounter 4:1 on September 21, 2025
The home team dominated recent head-to-head matches
Key Players
For Atlético San Luis, João Pedro (24 goals, 0 assists), Sébastien Salles-Lamonge (5 goals, 6 assists), and David Rodríguez (1 goal, 0 assists) are important players
Atlético San Luis will be without Sebastián Pérez Bouquet (2 goals, 3 assists) and Jesús Medina (1 goal, 2 assists), who are not in the starting lineup
For Santos Laguna, Lucas Di Yorio (5 goals, 3 assists), Ezequiel Bullaude (5 goals, 1 assist), and Fran Villalba (3 goals, 2 assists) are key players
Goalkeepers
Andrés Sánchez played in 30 season games for Atlético San Luis
Atlético San Luis's team achieved 6 clean sheets this season
Andrés Sánchez shows a rising form trend
Héctor Holguín played in 1 game for Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna recorded 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Atlético San Luis scores an average of 1.4 goals in home games
Santos Laguna concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away match