🇲🇽

Liga MX

Atlético San Luis - Santos Laguna

04/23/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Atlético San Luis
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Santos Laguna
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

11%

2:1

7%
What influences the xG?
ASLSL

Atlético San Luis

Attack weakness (0.42x league average)
-0.83
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Sebastián Pérez Bouquet on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Jesús Medina not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Santos Laguna

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos Laguna: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Santos Laguna with Bruno Amione: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Santos Laguna: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Atlético San Luis with Santiago Muñóz: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

33%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Away defense weakness: Santos Laguna concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game
  • Head-to-head record: Atlético San Luis recently dominated with 4 wins in 5 direct encounters
  • Balanced prognosis: Mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with only minor differences in win probabilities
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time: Santos Laguna had only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Declining goal production: Atlético San Luis's goal production has recently dropped to 1.0 goals, compared to a season average of 1.4 goals
  • Negative form trends: Both teams show negative form trends according to advanced statistics
Overview

Atlético San Luis (15th place, 16 points) host Santos Laguna (11th place, 20 points) in Liga MX

Kick-off is on April 23, 2026, 3:00 AM CEST

The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with a 34% home win probability and a 33% away win probability

Form

Atlético San Luis's form in all competitions is DLWDL

The team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches

Atlético San Luis's goal production has recently stalled (1.0 goals), with a season average of 1.4 goals

Santos Laguna's form in all competitions is LWDLL

The team achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches

Santos Laguna's goal production has also stalled (1.0 goals), with a season average of 1.2 goals

Statistics

Atlético San Luis scores an average of 1.4 goals per home game and concedes 1.73 goals

Both teams scored in 21 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 matches

Santos Laguna scores an average of 1.21 goals away and concedes 3.0 goals per game

Santos Laguna recorded both teams scoring in 20 matches and over 2.5 goals in 23 matches

The mathematical model predicts over 2.5 goals will be scored with a 36% probability

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, Atlético San Luis won 4 times, while Santos Laguna won 1 time

There were no draws between the teams

Atlético San Luis scored a total of 13 goals, Santos Laguna 6 goals

Atlético San Luis won the last encounter 4:1 on September 21, 2025

The home team dominated recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

For Atlético San Luis, João Pedro (24 goals, 0 assists), Sébastien Salles-Lamonge (5 goals, 6 assists), and David Rodríguez (1 goal, 0 assists) are important players

Atlético San Luis will be without Sebastián Pérez Bouquet (2 goals, 3 assists) and Jesús Medina (1 goal, 2 assists), who are not in the starting lineup

For Santos Laguna, Lucas Di Yorio (5 goals, 3 assists), Ezequiel Bullaude (5 goals, 1 assist), and Fran Villalba (3 goals, 2 assists) are key players

Goalkeepers

Andrés Sánchez played in 30 season games for Atlético San Luis

Atlético San Luis's team achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Andrés Sánchez shows a rising form trend

Héctor Holguín played in 1 game for Santos Laguna

Santos Laguna recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Atlético San Luis scores an average of 1.4 goals in home games

Santos Laguna concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away match

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.