La Liga
Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano
02/01/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.7
1.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
24%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
53%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- Clear matchup imbalance: Real Madrid's strong home offense (2.09 goals per game) meets Rayo Vallecano's vulnerable away defense (1.67 goals conceded per game)
- Significant form difference: Real Madrid is in top league form, while Rayo Vallecano is in a crisis with three consecutive losses
- Individual brilliance: The outstanding form of Kylian Mbappé, who has already scored 21 goals this season, is a decisive advantage for Real Madrid
Risk Factors
- Historical record: Despite being favorites, 4 of the last 5 direct encounters ended in a draw, showing that Rayo can be a difficult opponent
- Defensive absences: Several Real Madrid defenders, including MilitĂŁo and RĂŒdiger, are listed as injured or doubtful, which could weaken the defense
Overview
Real Madrid (2nd place, 51 points) host Rayo Vallecano (16th place, 22 points) at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
The La Liga match will take place on February 1, 2026, at 2:00 PM
Real Madrid aims to keep pace with the league leaders, while Rayo Vallecano is fighting for crucial points to avoid relegation
Form
Real Madrid form: LWWWL
In the last 5 matches, they have 3 wins and 2 losses
Rayo Vallecano form: WWLLL
The team recorded 2 wins and 3 losses, including a 3-game losing streak
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Real Madrid averages 2.14 goals per game this season, while Rayo Vallecano averages 2.25
Defensively, Real Madrid is more stable with 0.81 goals conceded per game compared to Rayo Vallecano's 0.88
A key factor is Real Madrid's home strength, conceding only 0.55 goals per game at home, whereas Rayo Vallecano concedes an average of 1.67 goals away
Real Madrid has kept 10 clean sheets, Rayo Vallecano has 4
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head encounters, Real Madrid won 1, Rayo Vallecano won none, and 4 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is 6:5 in favor of Real Madrid
The last game between the two teams ended 0:0
Real Madrid is considered the recently dominant team
Key Players
Kylian Mbappé is Real Madrid's standout player with 21 season goals
Vinicius Junior has contributed 5 goals and 5 assists
Arda GĂŒler has provided 7 assists this season
For Rayo Vallecano, Jorge de Frutos is the top scorer with 6 goals
Ălvaro GarcĂa has been involved in 5 goals (3 goals, 2 assists)
Isi PalazĂłn has 2 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Thibaut Courtois has played in 21 matches for Real Madrid, with the team keeping 10 clean sheets
Augusto Batalla has played 21 games for Rayo Vallecano, with the team keeping 4 clean sheets
Influences
Real Madrid's home advantage is significant, averaging 2.09 goals scored at home while conceding only 0.55
The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu is statistically a high-scoring venue, with an average of 4.0 goals per game in recent matches
Both teams have scored in 60% of the last games at the stadium
Real Madrid has a strong home record on natural grass with 7 wins in 10 games