Liga MX
Atlas - Tigres UANL
04/23/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.6
1.6
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
9%2:1
6%1:3
5%What influences the xG?
Atlas
Tigres UANL
League
The Lab
- 1Tigres UANL with Rômulo Zanre Zwarg: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Tigres UANL: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3Tigres UANL: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 4Atlas with Jorge Rodríguez: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Atlas: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
29%
Away Win
49%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
51%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Mathematical prediction: Tigres UANL is the clear favorite with a win probability of 49%
- Season performance: Tigres UANL (2nd place) clearly outperforms Atlas (7th place) in league standings and offensive power (avg. 1.76 to 1.22 goals)
- Head-to-head record: Tigres UANL has been the more dominant team in recent direct clashes
Risk Factors
- Atlas shows stagnant goal production with an average of 0.7 goals recently, compared to the season average of 1.3 goals
- Tigres UANL records stagnant goal production of an average of 1.5 goals recently, compared to the season average of 2.0 goals
Overview
Atlas (7th place, 22 points) hosts Tigres UANL (2nd place, 36 points) in a Liga MX match on April 23, 2026, 3:00 AM
Tigres UANL aims to solidify its top position and maintain the gap to the league leaders
Form
Atlas' last five games show a form of DDLDW
This translates to one win, three draws, and one loss
Atlas recently won 1-0 against Santos Laguna
Tigres UANL's form in the last five matches is DLLWD
They achieved one win, two draws, and two losses
In their last game, Tigres UANL drew 1-1 with Necaxa
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Atlas averages 1.22 goals scored per game and concedes 1.66 goals
In home games, Atlas averages 1.19 goals scored and concedes 1.05 goals
Atlas kept 8 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 17 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 16 games
Tigres UANL averages 1.76 goals scored per game and concedes 1.05 goals
In away games, Tigres UANL averages 1.80 goals scored and concedes 1.73 goals
Tigres UANL kept 13 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 22 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Atlas secured one win, Tigres UANL claimed two wins, and there were two draws
The goal difference over the last five games is 5:6 in favor of Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL won the last encounter on September 25, 2025, with a score of 2:0
Tigres UANL has been the more dominant team in recent direct clashes
Key Players
For Atlas, Diego González in attack is a key player with 6 goals and 6 assists, and a season average rating of 7.04
Manuel Capasso, a defender, performs well with 2 goals and rising form (season average rating 7.24, last 5 games 7.74)
In midfield, Víctor Ríos contributes with 1 goal and rising form (season average rating 6.78, last 5 games 7.15)
For Tigres UANL, Ángel Correa is crucial in attack with 15 goals and 8 assists, and a season average rating of 7.23
Diego Lainez contributes 6 goals and 7 assists in attack with a season average rating of 7.14
Rodrigo Aguirre, also in attack, has 1 goal and 2 assists, and has scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Atlas goalkeeper Camilo Vargas made 29 season appearances and kept 8 clean sheets
Tigres UANL goalkeeper Nahuel Guzmán played in 38 season games and recorded 13 clean sheets
Influences
Atlas averages 1.19 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded in home games
Tigres UANL averages 1.80 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded in away games