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Liga MX

Monterrey - Puebla

04/22/2026, 03:05 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Monterrey
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Puebla
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
MONPUE

Monterrey

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 16, 11 places gap)
+0.08
Uros Djurdjevic on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Gerardo Arteaga on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Puebla

Defensive strength (2.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+1.07
Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.45
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.19
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 5, 11 places gap)
-0.10
Fernando MonĂĄrrez not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Kevin Velasco not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 69% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Puebla: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Monterrey with Jorge RodrĂ­guez: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Monterrey: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Puebla: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Puebla: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

29%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Monterrey with 52% probability, with 1.49 expected home goals compared to 0.80 for Puebla
  • Monterrey dominates head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, with a goal difference of 10:5 in the last five encounters
  • Puebla shows a weak away defense, conceding an average of 2.62 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Puebla's squad strength is critically limited, with only 70% of usual goal threat available, missing players like Fernando MonĂĄrrez (1G/3A) and Kevin Velasco (0G/3A)
  • Both teams had only 3 days rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
  • Puebla recorded an average of only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Monterrey conceded an average of 2.5 goals in recent matches, compared to a season average of 1.54 goals conceded
Overview

Monterrey (5th place, 31 points) hosts Puebla (16th place, 13 points) in Liga MX

Kick-off is on April 22, 2026, 4:05 AM

Monterrey is fighting for a better playoff position, while Puebla is struggling to keep up

Form

Monterrey shows a form of D-L-L-D-L in their last five matches across all competitions

This includes 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Puebla also has a form of D-L-D-L-L

This consists of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with two consecutive losses at the end

Statistics

Monterrey scores an average of 1.64 goals per game and concedes 1.5 goals per game

At home, Monterrey averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded

Puebla scores an average of 1.0 goal per season and concedes 2.0 goals per game

Away from home, Puebla's goal average is 1.0, while they concede an average of 2.62 goals

Both teams scored in 19 Monterrey games and 16 Puebla games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 20 Monterrey games and 19 Puebla games

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Monterrey dominated

Monterrey won 3 games, while Puebla recorded no wins

Two matches ended in a draw

The goal difference of 10:5 clearly favors Monterrey

The last encounter on August 30, 2025, was won by Monterrey with a score of 4:2

Key Players

For Monterrey, Lucas Ocampos (6 goals, 6 assists, average rating 6.99), Óliver Torres (1 goal, 8 assists, average rating 7.12), and Luca Orellano (3 goals, 4 assists, average rating 7.31) are notable

Their form trends are currently declining

For Puebla, Emiliano GĂłmez (7 goals, 5 assists, average rating 6.87) stands out

Alejandro Organista (1 goal, 1 assist, average rating 6.80) and Juan Pablo Vargas (1 goal, 0 assists, average rating 6.83) are other key players

Emiliano GĂłmez and Juan Pablo Vargas also show declining form trends

Goalkeepers

Monterrey's goalkeeper, Santiago Mele, played in 15 season appearances

Monterrey has kept 10 clean sheets in total this season

Puebla's goalkeeper, Daniel Gutiérrez, also started in 15 season appearances

Puebla has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Monterrey scored 1.6 goals per game at home and conceded 1.1 goals per home game

Puebla concedes an average of 2.62 goals per away game

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