Liga MX
Necaxa - Guadalajara
04/23/2026, 03:10 AM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.6
1.6
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
9%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Necaxa
Guadalajara
League
The Lab
- 1Guadalajara: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Necaxa with Israel Tello: 4.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Guadalajara: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- 4Guadalajara: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Guadalajara with Santiago Sandoval: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
25%
Draw
28%
Away Win
46%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
54%
Away or Draw
75%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Dominant Away Form: Guadalajara has shown significantly improved offensive performance in recent games (currently averaging 3.2 goals compared to 2.0 season average) with 3 wins in their last 5 matches
- Tactical Superiority: Guadalajara demonstrated clear possession dominance averaging 64% and 9.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Table and Historical Gap: Guadalajara sits at the top of the table with 34 points, while Necaxa is in 12th place with 17 points, furthermore Guadalajara won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches
Risk Factors
- Guadalajara conceded an average of 1.92 goals per away game
- Guadalajara had only 4 days of rest since their last match
Overview
Necaxa (12th place, 17 points) host Guadalajara (1st place, 34 points) in Liga MX on April 23, 2026, 5:05 AM
Guadalajara leads the table and is a clear favorite for the win
Form
Necaxa's form in the last 5 games is DWWLD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)
Their last game ended in a draw
Guadalajara's form in the last 5 games is WWDLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
Their last game ended in a win
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Necaxa scores an average of 1.31 goals per game and concedes 1.66 goals
Guadalajara scores an average of 1.88 goals per game and concedes 1.24 goals
Necaxa kept 3 clean sheets, Guadalajara kept 11 clean sheets
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 18 games for Necaxa and 22 games for Guadalajara
Necaxa's recent scoring (1.8) is higher than their season average (1.4)
Guadalajara's recent scoring (3.2) is higher than their season average (2.0)
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 3 times and Necaxa won 2 times
Guadalajara scored a total of 10 goals, while Necaxa scored 7 goals
The last encounter on September 24, 2025, ended with a 3:1 away win for Guadalajara
Guadalajara has been the more dominant team in recent meetings
Key Players
For Necaxa, key players include Attacker Tomås Badaloni (8 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.84 rating, 3 goals in last 5 games), Midfielder Javier Ruiz (5 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.15 rating, 3 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games), and Defender Alexis Peña (2 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.72 rating, 1 goal in last 5 games)
For Guadalajara, crucial players are Attacker Armando GonzĂĄlez (24 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.05 rating, 3 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games), Defender Bryan Alonso GonzĂĄlez OlivĂĄn (6 goals, 5 assists, avg 6.98 rating, 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 games), and Midfielder EfraĂn Ălvarez (3 goals, 7 assists, avg 7.17 rating, 2 assists in last 5 games)
Goalkeepers
Ezequiel Unsain (avg 6.74 rating) is in goal for Necaxa, with the team recording 3 clean sheets
For Guadalajara, Ăscar AlexĂĄnder Whalley Guardado (avg 6.5 rating) is the goalkeeper, and the team has 11 clean sheets
Influences
Necaxa scored an average of 1.31 home goals and conceded 1.06 home goals
Guadalajara scored an average of 1.92 away goals and conceded 1.92 away goals