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Liga MX

Mazatlán - Toluca

04/23/2026, 01:00 AM

4 : 3
Expected Goals
Mazatlán
0.9
Total xG
2.9
Toluca
2.0
Most Likely Scores

0:2

11%

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:3

8%

1:3

7%
What influences the xG?
MAZTOL

Mazatlán

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.93
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.18
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 1, 15 places gap)
-0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.12

Toluca

Attack strength (1.35x league average)
+0.81
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.41
Declining form (0.8 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.41
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 16, 15 places gap)
+0.14
Paulinho not in squad (21 goals, 4 assists)
Jesús Angulo on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists)
Franco Romero not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
61% of goal output missing (only 57% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toluca with Pável Pérez: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Mazatlán with Gabriel Lopez: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Toluca: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Toluca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Toluca: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

14%

Draw

23%

Away Win

62%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

38%

Away or Draw

86%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Table Position and Form: Toluca, as league leader (37 points), is clearly superior to Mazatlán (16th place, 14 points)
  • Toluca's Offensive Strength: The mathematical analysis predicts 1.99 expected goals for Toluca, while Mazatlán has only 0.86 expected goals
  • Mazatlán's Defensive Vulnerability: Mazatlán conceded an average of 1.81 goals per season, and Toluca is significantly more stable away with only 1.07 goals conceded per game
Risk Factors
  • Weak current goal production for both teams: Mazatlán's goal production is stagnant (0.8 goals in recent games), the season average is 1.2
  • Absences for Toluca: Only 57% of Toluca's usual starting eleven goal threat is available, as Paulinho (21 goals, 4 assists), Jesús Angulo (7 goals, 4 assists), and Franco Romero (1 goal, 2 assists) are not listed
  • Short recovery time for Toluca: Toluca had only 4 days of rest since their last match
Overview

Mazatlán (16th place, 14 points) host Toluca (1st place, 37 points) in Liga MX on April 23, 2026, 2:00 AM

The visitors are clear league leaders, while Mazatlán struggles at the bottom of the table

Toluca aims to solidify its league lead, Mazatlán seeks crucial points in the relegation battle

Form

Mazatlán's last 5 games show the form "LDLLD"

The team recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Toluca's last 5 games show the form "DDLDL"

Toluca has 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Mazatlán averaged 1.16 goals scored per game and conceded 1.81 goals per game this season

At home, they averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded

Toluca is significantly stronger offensively with an average of 1.87 goals per game and a solid defense with 0.92 goals conceded

Away from home, Toluca scores 1.93 goals and concedes 1.07 goals per game

Mazatlán had both teams score in 24 of 32 games, and 19 games had over 2.5 goals

Toluca had both teams score in 21 of 38 games, and 19 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mazatlán won 2 and Toluca won 3

There were no draws

Mazatlán scored 5 goals, Toluca scored 11 goals

The last encounter on September 28, 2025, ended with a 1:3 victory for Toluca

Toluca has been more dominant in recent matchups

Key Players

For Mazatlán, Facundo Almada is an important defender with 6 goals and 2 assists this season

Josué Ovalle in attack contributed 5 goals and 1 assist, with an average rating of 6.87

Yoel Bárcenas (2 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.85) is also a key offensive player

For Toluca, Alexis Vega stands out with 4 goals and 10 assists, with a season average rating of 7.56

Marcel Ruiz in midfield has scored 3 goals and provided 4 assists, with a rating of 7.32

Antonio Briseño, a defender, has 2 goals and 1 assist and a rating of 6.87, with a positive form trend

Goalkeepers

Mazatlán's goalkeeper Ricardo Rodríguez played 15 games this season with an average rating of 7.22

The Mazatlán team has achieved 2 clean sheets this season

Toluca's goalkeeper Hugo González played 22 games and has a rating of 6.85

Toluca has 13 clean sheets this season

Influences

Mazatlán averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded at home, indicating a moderate home advantage

Mazatlán played counter-attacking in their last 5 games with an average of 40% possession and 3.4 shots on target

Toluca played possession-dominant in their last 5 games with an average of 63% possession and 5.8 shots on target

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