Liga MX
Tijuana - Pachuca
04/23/2026, 03:06 AM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.5
1.5
1:1
14%0:2
9%1:2
9%2:1
6%0:3
5%What influences the xG?
Tijuana
Pachuca
League
The Lab
- 1Pachuca: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 2Pachuca with Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez: 7.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Tijuana with Frank Boya: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Tijuana: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Tijuana: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
29%
Away Win
48%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
52%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Pachuca with a probability of 48%
- Pachuca's recent offensive strength averages 2.2 goals per game in recent form, compared to their season average of 1.5 goals
- Tijuana's home defense is robust, allowing only 0.57 goals per game this season
Risk Factors
- Pachuca has had only 4 days of rest since their last match
- Tijuana averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Pachuca is significantly weakened by the absence of Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán, Kenedy, Oussama Idrissi, Elías Montiel, Salomón Rondón, and Sergio Damián Barreto, with only 57% of their usual goal threat available
Overview
Tijuana (7th place, 24 points) host Pachuca (3rd place, 31 points) in a Liga MX match on April 23, 2026, 3:06 AM. Pachuca aims to solidify its top position, while Tijuana seeks to climb further up the table.
Form
Tijuana's recent form across all competitions is W L W W D, including 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their last result was a 1-1 draw against Cruz Azul. Pachuca's form is D D W W W, showing 3 wins and 2 draws, with no losses. Their last result was a 3-1 away win against Monterrey. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Tijuana averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they concede significantly less, with an average of 0.57 goals per game, while scoring 1.43 goals. They have kept 12 clean sheets. Pachuca averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per game. In away matches, they score an average of 1.44 goals and concede 1.31 goals. They have recorded 7 clean sheets. Tijuana has seen both teams score in 18 games and over 2.5 goals in 18 games. Pachuca has seen both teams score in 19 games and over 2.5 goals in 18 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Tijuana has won 2 matches and Pachuca has won 3. Pachuca holds a slight advantage in recent head-to-head history. Across these matches, Tijuana scored 9 goals, while Pachuca scored 11 goals. The last match between these teams on August 17, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for Tijuana.
Key Players
Tijuana's key players include Kevin Castañeda with 13 goals and 7 assists this season, Gilberto Mora with 5 goals and 1 assist, and Ramiro Árciga with 3 goals and 7 assists. For Pachuca, Enner Valencia has contributed 6 goals and 1 assist, Alexéi Domínguez has 2 goals and 3 assists, and Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez has 3 goals and 2 assists. Kevin Castañeda shows a stable form trend with 4 goals in his last 5 games. Jackson Porozo's rating has been rising in his last 3 games.
Goalkeepers
Antonio Rodríguez, Tijuana's goalkeeper, has played 35 games this season and achieved 12 clean sheets. Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna, Pachuca's goalkeeper, has played 33 games this season and recorded 7 clean sheets.
Influences
Tijuana exhibits a strong home defense, conceding only 0.57 goals per home game this season. They score an average of 1.43 goals in home matches. Pachuca scores an average of 1.44 goals and concedes an average of 1.31 goals in their away matches.