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Liga MX

Pumas UNAM - Juárez

04/22/2026, 01:00 AM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Pumas UNAM
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Juárez
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PUJUÁ

Pumas UNAM

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.10
Adalberto Carrasquilla not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)

Juárez

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.52
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.09
Óscar Estupiñán on the bench (15 goals, 3 assists)
Rodolfo Pizarro not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
49% of goal output missing (only 66% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juárez: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Juárez: 89% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Pumas UNAM: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 4
    Pumas UNAM: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 5
    Pumas UNAM with Pablo Bennevendo Peña: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

30%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Pumas UNAM is in excellent form with 2 consecutive wins
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 44% probability
  • Juárez has high defensive vulnerability away, conceding an average of 2.13 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Only 67% of Juárez's usual starting eleven strength is available, without Óscar Estupiñán (15G/3A) and Rodolfo Pizarro (4G/2A)
  • Juárez has only 3 days rest since their last match
  • Pumas UNAM averaged 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Pumas UNAM (3rd place, 30 points) host Juárez (8th place, 23 points) in Liga MX on April 22, 2026, 1:00 AM

Pumas UNAM is battling for a strong playoff position

Juárez is looking to secure a playoff spot

Form

Pumas UNAM shows a form of DWDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses in their last 5 matches

Juárez has a form of WDDLL

They achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Pumas UNAM won their last 2 games consecutively

Juárez lost their last 2 games consecutively

Statistics

Pumas UNAM averages 1.62 goals scored at home and concedes 1.06 goals per home game

Juárez averages 1.47 goals scored away but concedes 2.13 goals per away game

Pumas UNAM scored in 22 of 33 games, while Juárez scored in 29 of 36 games

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 16 of Pumas UNAM's 33 games

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 24 of Juárez's 36 games

Pumas UNAM is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.7)

Juárez's goal production is stagnant (1.2), compared to their season average of 1.5

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pumas UNAM secured 2 wins, Juárez 1 win, and there were 2 draws

Pumas UNAM scored 5 goals, and Juárez also scored 5 goals in these encounters

The last meeting on September 24, 2025, ended in a 3-1 victory for Juárez

The home team (Pumas UNAM) has been more dominant in recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

Juninho is a key offensive player for Pumas UNAM with 7 goals and 3 assists

Guillermo Martínez Ayala contributed 7 goals for Pumas UNAM

Robert Morales scored 5 goals and 1 assist for Pumas UNAM

José Luis Rodríguez is a crucial player for Juárez with 4 goals and 8 assists

Jairo Torres recorded 3 goals and 2 assists for Juárez

Denzell García has 3 goals and 2 assists for Juárez

Goalkeepers

Pumas UNAM's goalkeeper Pablo Lara has made 0 appearances this season

Pumas UNAM has kept 9 clean sheets this season

Juárez's goalkeeper Sebastián Jurado has 0 goals or assists in 36 appearances

Juárez has kept 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Pumas UNAM has a strong home record with an average of 1.62 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded in home games

Juárez shows defensive vulnerability in away games, conceding an average of 2.13 goals per away game

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