Liga MX
Querétaro - Cruz Azul
04/22/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.4
1.5
1:1
14%0:1
11%0:0
11%0:2
9%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Querétaro
Cruz Azul
League
The Lab
- 1Querétaro with Jean Unjanque: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 2Cruz Azul with Amaury Morales: 7.9 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Cruz Azul: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Cruz Azul: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Cruz Azul: 66% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
30%
Away Win
47%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
53%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Table Position and Prediction: Cruz Azul is 3rd in the table with 35 points, while Querétaro is 12th with 20 points. The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Cruz Azul with 47%.
- Tactical Contrast: Querétaro has shown a counter-attacking approach in their last 5 games with an average of 33% possession. Cruz Azul, on the other hand, is possession-dominant with an average of 58% possession and strong offensively with 5.6 shots on target.
- Form Trends: Querétaro is currently scoring more frequently (1.5 goals) and conceding fewer goals (0.75) than their season average. Cruz Azul's goal production has recently stalled (1.2 goals), while their season average is 1.9 goals.
Risk Factors
- Querétaro has shown a positive recent form trend, with an average of 0.75 goals conceded compared to their season average of 1.66 goals conceded.
- Cruz Azul's offensive efficiency has declined in recent games, with an average of 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.9 goals.
- The mathematical analysis predicts a relatively high probability of a draw at 30%.
Overview
Querétaro (12th place, 20 points) hosts Cruz Azul (3rd place, 35 points) in Liga MX on April 22, 2026, 2:00 AM. Cruz Azul enters the match as the favorite and aims to solidify its position at the top of the table, while Querétaro will seek to improve its standing.
Form
Querétaro is in good form with a DWDWD record in their last five games, which translates to 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses. Their last match was a 1-1 draw against Mazatlán. Cruz Azul's recent form is DDLDD, with 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss. Cruz Azul's last game was a 1-1 draw against Tijuana. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Querétaro averages 1.03 goals scored per game and concedes 1.5 goals. At home, they score 1.05 goals and concede only 0.90 goals per home game. Overall, they have 8 clean sheets, 15 games with both teams scoring, and 16 games with over 2.5 goals. Cruz Azul averages 1.75 goals scored per game and concedes 1.11 goals. Away, they also score 1.75 goals and concede 1.31 goals. They kept 10 clean sheets, had 25 games with both teams scoring, and 19 games with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Querétaro has 1 win, Cruz Azul has 3 wins, and there has been 1 draw. The goal difference is 6:9 in favor of Cruz Azul. The last encounter on September 25, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw. Cruz Azul has been more dominant away in recent meetings.
Key Players
For Querétaro, Alí Ávila with 10 season goals and Santiago Homenchenko with 6 season goals are important attacking players. Mateo Coronel has scored 5 season goals and shows a rising form with a form trend of +0.33. Not in lineup for Querétaro: Jhojan Julio (4G/3A). For Cruz Azul, Gabriel Fernández stands out with 14 season goals and 7 assists. José Paradela has contributed 8 season goals and 7 assists, while Carlos Rodríguez has 7 season goals and 5 assists. Not in lineup for Cruz Azul: Nicolás Ibáñez (2G/1A).
Goalkeepers
Querétaro's goalkeeper, José Hernández, has achieved 5 clean sheets at home in 11 appearances and shows a stable form trend of +0.21. For Cruz Azul, Kevin Mier is the goalkeeper in 18 appearances and has recorded 4 clean sheets away, with a stable form trend of -0.11.
Influences
Querétaro scores an average of 1.05 goals at home and concedes 0.90 goals per game. This indicates a more solid defense in home matches. Cruz Azul shows comparable performance away with an average of 1.75 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded, similar to their overall season average.