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Liga MX

Puebla - Querétaro

04/25/2026, 03:00 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Puebla
1.1
Total xG
1.9
Querétaro
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

11%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
PUEQUE

Puebla

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.86
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.16
Kevin Velasco not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)

Querétaro

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-0.57
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.41
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.08
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Puebla: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Querétaro with Jean Unjanque: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Puebla with Carlos Baltazar: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Puebla: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

35%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

58%

Under 1.5

42%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Form difference: Querétaro is unbeaten in the last 5 games, while Puebla suffered 4 losses
  • Offensive performance: Querétaro is currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than Puebla (0.6 goals)
  • Historical record: Querétaro dominated recent head-to-head matches with 3 wins in 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Puebla's goal production is stagnant (0.6 goals) according to Advanced Stats
  • Querétaro's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.64 goals per game
Overview

Puebla (17th place, 13 points) host Querétaro (12th place, 20 points) in Liga MX on April 25, 2026, 4:00 AM

Puebla is fighting relegation, while Querétaro aims to establish itself in the upper half of the table

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 39% probability, a draw with 35%, and an away win with 26%

Form

Puebla's current form across all competitions is poor with LDLLL

They have achieved 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last five matches

The last result was a 1-2 away loss against Monterrey, followed by a 0-5 away loss against Guadalajara

Querétaro's form is strong with WDWDD

They recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses in their last five matches

The last game ended in a 1-1 home draw against Cruz Azul, preceded by a 1-1 away draw against Mazatlán

Puebla's form trend is negative, while Querétaro shows a positive trend

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Puebla averaged 1.0 goal scored per game and conceded 2.0 goals per game this season

In home games, Puebla's average goals scored is 1.0 and goals conceded is 1.58

Querétaro averaged 1.03 goals scored per game and conceded 1.48 goals per game

In away games, Querétaro averaged 1.0 goal scored and conceded 2.64 goals

For Puebla, 17 matches ended with both teams scoring and 20 matches had over 2.5 goals

For Querétaro, 16 matches ended with both teams scoring and 16 matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Puebla secured 1 win, Querétaro claimed 3 wins, and there was 1 draw

Querétaro scored 9 goals and Puebla scored 4 goals, highlighting Querétaro's dominance in this period

The last encounter on October 4, 2025, resulted in a 3-1 away victory for Querétaro

Querétaro has been the dominant team in recent direct matchups

Key Players

For Puebla, Emiliano Gómez is an important attacker this season with 8 goals and 5 assists, although his form is slightly declining (season avg 6.9, last 5 avg 6.62)

Defender Fernando Monárrez has been stable with 1 goal and 3 assists in 23 appearances

Esteban Lozano, another attacker, scored 3 season goals in 27 appearances, but his form is declining (season avg 6.72, last 5 avg 6.21)

Querétaro can rely on Alí Ávila, who scored 10 goals in 23 games and shows stable form (season avg 6.86, last 5 avg 7.02)

Defender Santiago Homenchenko is also a key player with 6 season goals in 27 games and displays stable form (season avg 7.11, last 5 avg 7.11)

Attacker Mateo Coronel scored 5 goals in 23 appearances and his form is rising (season avg 6.62, last 5 avg 6.88)

Goalkeepers

Daniel Gutiérrez is Puebla's goalkeeper with 16 appearances and an average rating of 6.93

Puebla has recorded a total of 6 clean sheets this season

José Hernández is Querétaro's goalkeeper with 12 appearances and an average rating of 6.66

Querétaro has recorded a total of 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Puebla scores an average of 1.0 goal and concedes 1.58 goals in home matches

Querétaro scores an average of 1.0 goal and concedes 2.64 goals in away matches

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