Liga MX
Juárez - Atlético San Luis
04/26/2026, 03:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.8
1.0
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
10%1:2
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Juárez
Atlético San Luis
League
The Lab
- 1Juárez: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)
- 2Juárez: 88% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3Atlético San Luis with Santiago Muñóz: 4.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Atlético San Luis: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
27%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Juárez with a 53% probability
- Juárez's Form Crisis: The home team recently recorded 3 consecutive losses ('LLL')
- Atlético San Luis' Stability: The away team has shown better recent form with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
- Limited Preparation: Atlético San Luis had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Offensive Weakening for Juárez: Óscar Estupiñán (15G/3A) and Rodolfo Pizarro (4G/2A) are missing from the lineup
- Low Shot on Target Efficiency for Juárez: The home team recently averaged 3.4 shots on target
Overview
Juárez (8th place, 23 points) hosts Atlético San Luis (13th place, 18 points) in Liga MX on April 26, 2026, 5:00 AM
Juárez aims to solidify its position in the upper mid-table
While Atlético San Luis seeks to widen the gap to the relegation spots
Form
Juárez shows a 'DDLLL' form in their last 5 games
Which corresponds to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
The team recently recorded 3 consecutive losses
Atlético San Luis has a 'LWDLW' form
With 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
Atlético San Luis secured a win in their most recent game
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Juárez averages 1.49 goals scored and 1.76 goals conceded per game this season
At home, they average 1.48 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded
Atlético San Luis averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded per match
Away from home, they average 1.47 goals scored and 1.65 goals conceded
Juárez kept 3 clean sheets this season, while Atlético San Luis recorded 7
For Juárez, 30 games ended with both teams scoring and 25 games had over 2.5 goals
For Atlético San Luis, there were 21 BTTS games and 19 games with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 past head-to-head matches, Juárez won 3 times and Atlético San Luis won 2 times
With no draws
Both teams scored 10 goals each in these encounters
The last meeting on November 01, 2025, ended with a 2-1 victory for Juárez against Atlético San Luis
Key Players
For Juárez, José Luis Rodríguez (4 goals, 9 assists, Avg. 7.02), Denzell García (3 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.88), and Jairo Torres (4 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.70) are key offensive players
For Atlético San Luis, João Pedro (25 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.20), Sébastien Salles-Lamonge (5 goals, 6 assists, Avg. 7.20), and Benjamín Galdames (3 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.64) stand out
Goalkeepers
Juárez's goalkeeper, Sebastián Jurado, recorded 3 clean sheets this season
For Atlético San Luis, goalkeeper Andrés Sánchez kept his goal inviolate in 7 matches
Influences
Juárez scores an average of 1.48 goals and concedes 1.38 goals at home
Atlético San Luis scores an average of 1.47 goals and concedes 1.65 goals away
The dataset does not contain information about the specific venue, weather, or surface impact