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Liga MX

Toluca - León

04/26/2026, 01:05 AM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Toluca
2.1
Total xG
2.9
León
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
TOLLEÓ

Toluca

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.54
Attack strength (1.42x league average)
+0.43
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.29
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.09
Paulinho not in squad (21 goals, 4 assists)
Jesús Angulo on the bench (7 goals, 5 assists)
Franco Romero on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
70% of goal output missing (only 47% available)
Strong home record (2.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)

León

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.58
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (2 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.08
Juan Domínguez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toluca: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Toluca with Pável Pérez: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    León with Miguel Emilio Rodríguez Macías: 4.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Toluca: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Toluca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

67%

Draw

22%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

33%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Critical weakening for Toluca: Only 47% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available, as Paulinho (21G/4A), Jesús Angulo (7G/5A) and Franco Romero (1G/2A) are not in the lineup
  • León shows a significantly rising form with four wins in their last five games, while Toluca remained winless during this period
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 67% for Toluca and an expected 2.11 home goals
Risk Factors
  • Toluca has only 3 days since the last match
  • León concedes an average of 4.12 goals per away game
Overview

Toluca (1st place, 37 points) host León (10th place, 22 points) in a Liga MX match on April 26, 2026, 2:05 AM

The hosts lead the league and aim to solidify their position

Form

Toluca's form in the last five matches is DLDLL, with two draws and three losses

León, on the other hand, showed WWWWL, including four wins and one loss

León's current form trend is positive, scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.1)

Toluca's goal production is currently stagnant with an average of 1.2 goals, while their season average is 2.2

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Toluca averages 1.9 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.0 goals

At home, these values improve to 1.91 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded per home game

León averages 1.06 goals scored per game and concedes 1.79 goals

León's away defense is particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.12 goals per away game

Both teams scored in 22 of Toluca's games, and in 17 of León's matches

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Toluca secured two wins, León one win, and there were two draws

Toluca scored 13 goals in these matches, while León scored 9

The last meeting on October 5, 2025, ended in a 4-2 victory for Toluca

Key Players

For Toluca, Alexis Vega is an important attacker with 4 goals and 11 assists and a season average rating of 7.51, though his form is currently slightly declining

Antonio Briseño (3 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.91) shows a rising form

Pável Pérez contributed 2 assists and has an average rating of 6.94

On León's side, Ismael Díaz shines with 10 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 7.05

Díber Cambindo scored 7 times and provided 2 assists, and his form is rising

Fernando Beltrán (3 goals, 2 assists, rating 6.93) also shows a rising form

Goalkeepers

Toluca's goalkeeper Luis García played two of the last five games with an average rating of 6.94

The Toluca team recorded 13 clean sheets this season

León's goalkeeper Óscar García played all five of the last games with an average rating of 6.70

The León team achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Toluca shows a strong offensive performance at home with an average of 1.91 goals scored and a solid defense with 0.87 goals conceded per game

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