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Liga MX

Tigres UANL - Mazatlán

04/25/2026, 11:00 PM

5 : 1
Expected Goals
Tigres UANL
1.7
Total xG
2.3
Mazatlán
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

2:0

13%

1:1

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
TUMAZ

Tigres UANL

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.51
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 16, 14 places gap)
+0.11
Ozziel Herrera on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Rodrigo Aguirre on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Fernando Gorriarán not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Mazatlán

Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 2, 14 places gap)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
Lucas Merolla not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mazatlán with Billy Arce: 9.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Tigres UANL with Diego Sánchez: 5.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Tigres UANL: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Tigres UANL: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Mazatlán: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

27%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Tigres UANL's strong home record with an average of 1.74 home goals and only 0.61 home goals conceded contrasts with Mazatlán's away defense conceding an average of 2.9 goals
  • The mathematical analysis clearly favors Tigres UANL with a high home win probability of 59%
  • Mazatlán is currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals), indicating an improved offense
Risk Factors
  • Tigres UANL has only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Mazatlán has only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Mazatlán concedes an average of 2.9 goals per away game
Overview

Tigres UANL (2nd place, 36 points) host Mazatlán (16th place, 15 points) in Liga MX

Match on April 25, 2026, 6:00 PM

The mathematical analysis identifies Tigres UANL as favorites with a home win probability of 59%

Form

Tigres UANL's form across all competitions is LLWDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches

The last game ended in a 0-0 draw against Atlas

Mazatlán shows form DLLDW across all competitions

They achieved one win, two draws, and two losses

The team won their last game 4-3 against Toluca

Statistics

Tigres UANL averages 1.72 goals scored and 1.03 goals conceded per game this season

At home, Tigres UANL averages 1.74 goals scored and 0.61 goals conceded

Mazatlán averages 1.24 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded per game this season

Away from home, Mazatlán averages 1.2 goals scored and 2.9 goals conceded

Tigres UANL kept 14 clean sheets, Mazatlán kept 2 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 22 of Tigres UANL's games, and in 25 of Mazatlán's games

19 of Tigres UANL's games ended with over 2.5 goals, compared to 20 for Mazatlán

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres UANL won 3, Mazatlán won 1, and there was 1 draw

Tigres UANL scored 12 goals, while Mazatlán scored 8 goals

The last encounter on August 24, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw

Tigres UANL has been more dominant in recent direct encounters

Key Players

Juan Brunetta is a key midfielder for Tigres UANL with 16 goals, 8 assists, and an average rating of 7.48

Ángel Correa contributed significantly with 15 goals and 8 assists (average rating 7.21)

Diego Lainez (6 goals, 7 assists, average rating 7.12) shows a declining form trend

Not nominated for Tigres UANL are Ozziel Herrera (6 Goals/3 Assists), Rodrigo Aguirre (1 Goal/2 Assists), Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva (2 Goals/1 Assist), and Fernando Gorriarán (1 Goal/1 Assist)

For Mazatlán, Facundo Almada is a key defender with 6 goals and 3 assists (average rating 6.91)

Josué Ovalle (5 goals, 1 assist, average rating 6.86) and Brian Rubio (4 goals, 0 assists, average rating 6.9) are also important attackers

Lucas Merolla (0 Goals/2 Assists) is not nominated for Mazatlán

Goalkeepers

Nahuel Guzmán is the goalkeeper for Tigres UANL with an average rating of 7.12

Tigres UANL recorded 14 clean sheets this season

Ricardo Rodríguez is the goalkeeper for Mazatlán with an average rating of 7.20

Mazatlán achieved 2 clean sheets this season

Influences

Tigres UANL shows a clear home advantage with an average of 1.74 goals scored and only 0.61 goals conceded in home games

Mazatlán concedes an average of 2.9 goals per away game, indicating significant defensive weakness

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