Liga MX
Pachuca - Pumas UNAM
04/25/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.0
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
15%0:1
12%1:0
11%0:2
7%What influences the xG?
Pachuca
Pumas UNAM
League
The Lab
- 1Pachuca: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- 2Pumas UNAM: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 3Pumas UNAM: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 4Pachuca: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- 5Pachuca with Alån Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez: 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
34%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Pipeline analysis: The mathematical prediction indicates a very tight match, with Pumas UNAM having a narrow advantage at 34% win probability compared to Pachuca's 32%
- Current form: Pumas UNAM is in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games, including a 3-game winning streak
- Offensive statistics: Pumas UNAM has recently averaged 2.4 goals per game, while Pachuca has averaged 2.2 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Pachuca has only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Short recovery time: Pumas UNAM has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Squad impact: Pumas UNAM are missing Juninho (7G/3A) and Alan Medina (4G/4A), leaving only 79% of their usual starting eleven goal strength available
Overview
Pachuca (3rd place, 31 points) host Pumas UNAM (2nd place, 33 points) in a Liga MX match on April 25, 2026, 6:00 PM. Both teams are in the upper part of the table and are vying for a better position.
Form
Pachuca's form in their last five games is DWWWL, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their last match resulted in a 1-3 defeat against Tijuana. Pumas UNAM shows stronger form with WDWWW, having 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five outings. Pumas UNAM is on a three-game winning streak and won their last match 4-2 against JuĂĄrez. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Pachuca has scored an average of 1.43 goals per game and conceded 1.17 goals this season. At home, the average is 1.44 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded. Pumas UNAM records a season average of 1.68 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded. Away from home, Pumas UNAM averages 1.69 goals scored but concedes 1.62 goals per away game. Pachuca kept 7 clean sheets, while Pumas UNAM achieved 9 clean sheets.
Head-to-Head
In the 5 direct head-to-head matches between Pachuca and Pumas UNAM, Pachuca secured 3 wins, Pumas UNAM registered 1 win, and 1 match ended in a draw. The goal difference stands at 8:6 in favor of Pachuca. Pachuca won the last encounter 3-1 on November 21, 2025.
Key Players
For Pachuca, VĂctor Alfonso GuzmĂĄn GuzmĂĄn stands out with 4 goals in his last 5 games and an average rating of 7.42. Kenedy showed rising form with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances, with an average rating of 7.13. Oussama Idrissi contributed 5 goals and 3 assists this season, holding a season average rating of 6.97. For Pumas UNAM, Robert Morales was the top scorer in the last 5 games with 4 goals and achieved an average rating of 7.29. Ălvaro Angulo registered 6 season goals and 2 assists with a season average rating of 6.95. JordĂĄn Carrillo scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games, holding a season average rating of 7.07.
Goalkeepers
Pachuca's goalkeeper Carlos AgustĂn Moreno Luna made 34 appearances this season, with his team achieving 7 clean sheets. Pumas UNAM's goalkeeper Keylor Navas played in 31 games, and his team recorded 9 clean sheets. Keylor Navas also shows a rising form trend in his rating over the last 5 games.
Influences
Pachuca demonstrates solid performance at home with an average of 1.44 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded. Pumas UNAM scores an average of 1.69 goals away but also concedes 1.62 goals per away game.