Liga MX
Guadalajara - Tijuana
04/26/2026, 01:07 AM
Expected Goals
2.4
3.0
0.7
2:0
13%3:0
10%2:1
9%1:1
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Guadalajara
Tijuana
League
The Lab
- 1Guadalajara: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Guadalajara: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- 3Tijuana with Frank Boya: 5.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Tijuana: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Guadalajara: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
74%
Draw
18%
Away Win
8%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
92%
Away or Draw
26%
No Draw
82%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- The high home win probability of 74% for Guadalajara according to mathematical analysis
- Guadalajara's tactical dominance with an average of 60% possession and 7.4 shots on target in the last 5 games
- Tijuana's defensive vulnerability away from home with an average of 2.36 goals conceded per game
Risk Factors
- Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Tijuana's reduced assisting strength without Mourad El Ghezouani and Rafael FernĂĄndez, which corresponds to 89% of the usual assist share
Overview
Guadalajara (1st place, 35 points) host Tijuana (7th place, 24 points) in Liga MX on April 26, 2026, 3:07 AM
Guadalajara aims to consolidate its top position
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 74% probability and 2.35 expected goals for Guadalajara
Form
Guadalajara's form across all competitions: WDLWD
In the last 5 games, Guadalajara recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The last game ended in a draw
Guadalajara recently drew 0-0 against Necaxa away, beat Puebla 5-0 at home, lost 1-4 against Tigres UANL away, drew 2-2 against Pumas UNAM at home, and won 3-2 against Monterrey away
Tijuana shows form LWWDW with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Tijuana won their last game
Tijuana recently beat Pachuca 3-1 at home, drew 1-1 against Cruz Azul away, won 2-1 against JuĂĄrez away, beat Tigres UANL 1-0 at home, and lost 0-3 against Necaxa away
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Guadalajara scores an average of 1.83 goals per game this season and concedes 1.2 goals
At home, they score 1.86 goals and concede 0.81 goals on average
The team kept 12 clean sheets, 8 of them at home
Tijuana scores an average of 1.5 goals per game and concedes 1.28 goals
Away, their record is significantly weaker with 1.5 goals scored and 2.36 goals conceded per game
Tijuana achieved a total of 12 clean sheets, only 2 away from home
The mathematical analysis predicts 2.35 expected goals for Guadalajara and 0.68 for Tijuana for the match
The probability of both teams scoring is 46%
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 59%
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Guadalajara, 1 win for Tijuana, and 2 draws
Both teams scored 9 goals in these encounters
The last meeting on August 23, 2025, ended in a 3-3 draw
Key Players
For Guadalajara, Armando GonzĂĄlez (24 goals, 2 assists in 34 appearances), Bryan Alonso GonzĂĄlez OlivĂĄn (6 goals, 5 assists in 35 appearances), and EfraĂn Ălvarez (3 goals, 7 assists in 35 appearances) are noteworthy
For Tijuana, Kevin Castañeda (13 goals, 7 assists in 36 appearances), Ramiro Ărciga (3 goals, 8 assists in 35 appearances), and Gilberto Mora (6 goals, 1 assist in 19 appearances) stand out
Goalkeepers
Guadalajara's goalkeeper Ăscar AlexĂĄnder Whalley Guardado has an average rating of 6.68 in one season appearance
Tijuana relies on Antonio RodrĂguez, who has a rating of 7.19 in 36 season appearances
Guadalajara has achieved 12 clean sheets this season, Tijuana also has 12
Influences
Guadalajara shows a clear home advantage with an average of 1.86 goals scored and only 0.81 goals conceded in home games
Tijuana's away record is weak with an average of 1.5 goals scored and a high 2.36 goals conceded in away games