Friendly International

Slovenia - Cyprus

06/04/2026, 04:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Slovenia
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Cyprus
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SLOCYP

Slovenia

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.59
Standings advantage (pos 50 vs 128, 78 places gap)
+0.13
Full strength squad available

Cyprus

Attack strength (1.59x league average)
+0.63
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.56
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 128 vs 50, 78 places gap)
-0.17

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

26%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Slovenia with a 56% home win probability
  • Head-to-Head Record: Slovenia has secured 3 wins in 4 direct encounters against Cyprus
  • Offensive Potential: Stadion Stožice shows high goal potential with an average of 3.8 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Slovenia is without B. Šeško (Leg Injury) and I. Vekič (Unknown Injury)
  • Limited data: Cyprus is missing xG data for 4 of their last 5 matches, indicating restricted advanced metrics
  • Small sample size: Both teams have only played 2 season games, limiting the significance of season averages
Overview

Slovenia hosts Cyprus in a Friendly International match at Stadion Stožice on June 4, 2026, 6:00 PM. The mathematical analysis places Slovenia as favorites with a home win probability of 56%.

Form

Slovenia's form in their last two matches is W L (1 win, 1 loss). Their most recent result was a 3-2 victory against Montenegro. Cyprus's form in their last four games is D L L W (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses). Cyprus also secured a 3-2 victory in their last match against Moldova.

Statistics

Slovenia has averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game this season. Cyprus also averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game. The pipeline analysis predicts 1.82 expected home goals for Slovenia and 0.96 expected away goals for Cyprus. Stadion Stožice has seen an average of 3.8 goals per game in its last five matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games.

Head-to-Head

In the four past head-to-head encounters, Slovenia has been dominant, securing three wins. Cyprus won one match. Slovenia scored a total of 6 goals, while Cyprus scored 3 goals. The last meeting on November 14, 2021, ended in a 2-1 victory for Slovenia.

Key Players

For Slovenia, Zan Vipotnik (2 season goals) and Danijel Sturm (1 season goal, 1 assist) are key offensive players. Jaka Bijol shows a rising form trend with an average rating of 6.94 in his last five games. For Cyprus, Charalampos Charalampous (2 season goals) and Grigoris Kastanos (1 season goal) stand out. Panagiotis Andreou shows a rising form with an average rating of 6.71 in his last five games.

Goalkeepers

Slovenia's goalkeeper, Jan Oblak, achieved an average rating of 7.44 in his last three games. For Cyprus, goalkeeper Fabiano played in the last two games and recorded an average rating of 6.91.

Influences

The match will be played at Stadion Stožice on grass. The venue has historically shown an increased goal production with an average of 3.8 goals per game. In 60% of recent matches, both teams scored, and 60% of matches ended with over 2.5 goals.

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