Match report →
Slovenia – Cyprus1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Slovenia
1.82
Total xG
2.78
Cyprus
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Slovenia | Cyprus |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.59x league average) | +0.63 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.59 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.56 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 128 vs 50, 78 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 50 vs 128, 78 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Slovenia with a 56% home win probability
- Head-to-Head Record: Slovenia has secured 3 wins in 4 direct encounters against Cyprus
- Offensive Potential: Stadion Stožice shows high goal potential with an average of 3.8 goals per game
Risks
- Slovenia is without B. Šeško (Leg Injury) and I. Vekič (Unknown Injury)
- Limited data: Cyprus is missing xG data for 4 of their last 5 matches, indicating restricted advanced metrics
- Small sample size: Both teams have only played 2 season games, limiting the significance of season averages
All probabilities
Result
Slovenia56%
Draw26%
Cyprus18%
Double chance
Slovenia or draw82%
Cyprus or draw44%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
Lineups
Slovenia 4-4-2 · Cyprus 4-3-3
Slovenia
- 1 J. Oblak
- 5 S. Kuzmic
- 6 J. Bijol
- 23 D. Brekalo
- 13 E. Janža
- 10 S. Sešlar
- 22 A. Čerin
- 14 T. Svetlin
- 7 B. Verbič
- 18 Ž. Vipotnik
- 15 D. Šturm
Cyprus
- 1 F. Ribeiro de Freitas
- 26 A. Shikkis
- 15 C. Shelis
- 19 K. Laifis
- 14 G. Malekkides
- 20 G. Kastanos
- 16 P. Andreou
- 5 C. Charalampous
- 24 S. Georgiou
- 9 I. Pittas
- 21 M. Tzionis
Substitutes
- 3 J. Urbančič
- 12 M. Vidovšek
- 26 A. Zeljković
- 16 Ž. Leban
- 2 Ž. Karničnik
- 9 A. Šporar
- 25 E. Sokler
- 8 S. Lovric
- 11 T. Begić
- 17 D. Zec
- 19 A. Matko
- 21 V. Drkušić
- 4 M. Ratnik
- 24 T. Koren
- 22 N. Michael
- 25 G. Naoum
- 12 A. Paraskevas
- 11 A. Kakoullis
- 7 A. Correia de Barros
- 23 A. Neophytou
- 8 C. Kyriakou
- 18 A. Christou
- 10 L. Loizou
- 4 S. Andreou
- 13 I. Kosti
- 17 E. Antoniou
- 6 G. Satsias
- 2 K. Serghiou
- 3 C. Soteriou
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