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FA Cup

Chelsea - Leeds United

04/26/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Chelsea
2.0
Total xG
3.4
Leeds United
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CHELU

Chelsea

Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.61
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average)
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap)
+0.07
Cole Palmer not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Estêvão not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)

Leeds United

Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+0.31
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
A. Stach not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chelsea with Robert Sánchez: 0 goals/90 min. Without: 9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Leeds United with Wilfried Gnonto: 4.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Leeds United: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Chelsea: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Leeds United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

24%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Form disparity: Leeds United's positive form (2 wins, 3 draws) contrasts with Chelsea's current crisis (4 losses in 5 games)
  • Performance trend: Leeds United's goal production (2.3 goals/game recently) is rising, while Chelsea's (1.4 goals/game recently) is declining
  • Model forecast: Despite poor form, the mathematical analysis still slightly favors Chelsea with a 51% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Leeds United concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
Overview

Chelsea host Leeds United in the FA Cup final. The match will take place on April 26, 2026, 4:00 PM, at Wembley Stadium. The mathematical analysis suggests a slight advantage for Chelsea, with a home win probability of 51%.

Form

Chelsea shows poor form with 4 losses in their last 5 games (LWLLL). Most recently, they lost 0-3 away to Brighton & Hove Albion, 0-1 at home to Manchester United, and 0-3 at home to Manchester City. Chelsea's goal production is faltering (currently averaging 1.4 goals), while the season average is 2.0 goals, indicating a negative form trend.

Leeds United, on the other hand, is in a positive phase of form with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches (DDWWD). Most recently, they drew 2-2 away to AFC Bournemouth and won 2-1 away to Manchester United. Leeds is currently scoring more frequently (averaging 2.3 goals) than their season average (1.6 goals), which underlines a positive form trend.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Chelsea has scored an average of 1.56 goals and conceded 1.32 goals per game this season. They kept 9 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 20 matches, and 22 matches ended with over 2.5 goals.

Leeds United has scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded 1.50 goals per game. They managed to keep 7 clean sheets. For Leeds, both teams scored in 20 matches, and 19 matches had over 2.5 goals.

Wembley Stadium statistics show an average of 2.25 goals per game in 4 matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 4 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 4 games. Chelsea averages 1.53 goals scored at home and concedes 1.4 goals. Leeds United concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game.

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, there was one win for each team and one draw. Chelsea scored 6 goals in these matches, while Leeds United scored 7 goals. The last encounter on February 10, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw.

Key Players

For Chelsea, João Pedro with 14 season goals and 5 assists, and Enzo Fernández in midfield with 8 season goals and 3 assists are important players in offense. Pedro Neto contributes to the offense with 5 goals and 4 assists. João Pedro and Pedro Neto show a declining form trend, while Enzo Fernández is stable. Not nominated for the starting eleven are Cole Palmer (9 goals, 1 assist) and Estêvão (2 goals, 2 assists).

For Leeds United, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the top scorer of the season with 11 goals and 1 assist. Noah Okafor shows a rising form and contributed 7 goals and 1 assist. Brenden Aaronson in midfield has 4 goals and 5 assists. Noah Okafor, James Justin, and Ao Tanaka show a rising form trend. Not nominated for the starting eleven is A. Stach (4 goals, 3 assists).

Goalkeepers

For Chelsea, Robert Sánchez is in goal, having made 32 appearances this season and contributed to 9 of his team's clean sheets. His form trend is declining.

In Leeds United's goal, Lucas Perri has featured in 16 season games. Leeds United recorded a total of 7 clean sheets this season. Lucas Perri shows a rising form trend.

Influences

The match will be played at Wembley Stadium on grass, a neutral venue. Wembley Stadium statistics show an average of 2.25 goals per game. Both teams scored in half of the matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in half of the matches.

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