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FA Cup

Chelsea - Manchester City

05/16/2026, 02:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Chelsea
1.1
Total xG
3.1
Manchester City
2.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

1:3

7%

0:3

6%
What influences the xG?
CHEMC

Chelsea

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.40
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.40
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap)
-0.08
Pedro Neto on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Trevoh Chalobah on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)

Manchester City

Attack strength (1.69x league average)
+0.92
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.25
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap)
+0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.05
Rayan Cherki on the bench (4 goals, 12 assists)
Rayan Aït-Nouri not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester City: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Manchester City: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 3
    Chelsea with Enzo Fernández: 0.5 goals/90 min. Without: 6.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Manchester City with Phil Foden: 8.6 goals/90 min. Without: 2.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Manchester City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

19%

Draw

24%

Away Win

57%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

43%

Away or Draw

81%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Manchester City's superior offensive power (Avg. 2.08 goals/game) and defensive solidity (Avg. 0.89 goals conceded/game) compared to Chelsea
  • Manchester City's dominant recent form (4 wins, 1 draw) contrasts sharply with Chelsea's struggling form (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
  • The mathematical model strongly favors Manchester City with a 57% win probability and predicts 1.99 expected goals for them
Risk Factors
  • Manchester City faces the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Chelsea's tactical analysis shows they average only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating a lower offensive threat
  • Chelsea has several players sidelined due to injuries, including J. Derry, C. Wiley, E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves, J. Bynoe-Gittens, and M. Mudryk
Overview

Chelsea face Manchester City in the FA Cup Final at Wembley Stadium on May 16, 2026, 3:00 PM

This highly anticipated final pits two strong English teams against each other

The mathematical analysis gives Manchester City a significant advantage with a 57% chance of winning

Chelsea's win probability stands at 19%, and a draw at 24%

Form

Chelsea's recent form in all competitions is 'LLWLD', showing 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches

Their last result was a draw

Manchester City, by contrast, are in excellent form with 'WWDWW', recording 4 wins and 1 draw, including two consecutive wins

According to advanced statistics, Chelsea's goal production is struggling (0.6 goals recently), while Manchester City maintains consistent scoring with approximately 2.3 goals per game

Statistics

Manchester City boasts a strong offensive record this season, averaging 2.08 goals scored per game, significantly higher than Chelsea's 1.53 goals per game

Defensively, Manchester City is also superior, conceding only 0.89 goals per game on average, compared to Chelsea's 1.36

Manchester City has kept 16 clean sheets this season, while Chelsea has 9

In away games, Manchester City scores an average of 2.07 goals and concedes 1.33

Chelsea, playing at home, scores 1.5 goals and concedes 1.5

The Wembley Stadium has seen an average of 2.0 total goals per game in its last five matches

Both teams scored in 40% of games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%

Head-to-Head

In the last five direct encounters, Manchester City have a clear advantage with 4 wins compared to Chelsea's 0, and 1 draw

Manchester City have scored 10 goals against Chelsea's 2 in these matches

The most recent fixture on April 12, 2026, saw Manchester City win 3-0 away

Manchester City have been the dominant team in recent head-to-head clashes

Key Players

For Chelsea, Enzo Fernández (9 goals, 3 assists, Avg. Rating 7.23) shows a rising form trend

João Pedro (15 goals, 5 assists, Avg. Rating 7.16) has a declining form trend, while Cole Palmer (9 goals, 1 assist, Avg. Rating 6.99) also shows a declining trend

Not nominated from the usual starting lineup are Pedro Neto (5G/4A) and Trevoh Chalobah (3G/0A)

For Manchester City, Erling Haaland (26 goals, 8 assists, Avg. Rating 7.33) maintains a stable form

Jérémy Doku (5 goals, 5 assists, Avg. Rating 7.22) is in rising form

Bernardo Silva (2 goals, 4 assists, Avg. Rating 6.96) shows a stable form trend

Not nominated from the usual starting lineup are Rayan Cherki (4G/12A) and Rayan Aït-Nouri (0G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Chelsea's goalkeeper Robert Sánchez has made 33 season appearances and has an average rating of 6.80

Chelsea recorded 9 clean sheets this season

For Manchester City, James Trafford has 3 season appearances and an average rating of 6.88

Manchester City achieved 16 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place at Wembley Stadium, a neutral venue

The stadium's recent history shows an average of 2.0 total goals per game over 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

This suggests a tendency for matches with moderate scoring at this venue

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