Friendly International

Japan - Iceland

05/31/2026, 10:25 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Japan
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Iceland
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
JAPICE

Japan

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.36
Attack strength (1.5x league average)
+1.19
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.77
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 19 vs 74, 55 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.10
K. Mitoma not in squad (1 goals, 0 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 50% available)

Iceland

Standings disadvantage (pos 74 vs 19, 55 places gap)
-0.17
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.08
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.07
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Japan with Keito Nakamura: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

28%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Japan's excellent form with five consecutive wins and no goals conceded
  • Iceland's defensive vulnerability with an average of 2.33 goals conceded per game this season
  • The absence of K. Mitoma for Japan, leaving only 50% of the goal production available
Risk Factors
  • Iceland averaged 2.2 shots on target in their last 4 games, indicating few attempts on goal
  • Iceland conceded an average of 2.33 goals per away game this season
Overview

Japan hosts Iceland at the Grenada National Stadium for a Friendly International match on May 31, 2026, 12:25 PM. Mathematical analysis shows a 51% probability of a Japan win, while a draw is at 28% and an Iceland win at 21%

Form

Japan shows excellent form with five consecutive wins (WWWWW)

They conceded no goals in their last five matches, scoring a total of 10 goals

Iceland has only one win in their last four games, along with two draws and one loss (WLDD)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Japan scored an average of 1.0 goal per game this season and conceded no goals in 2 matches

Iceland has a goal average of 1.0 per game this season but conceded an average of 2.33 goals in 3 matches

Japan recorded 2 clean sheets in 2 season games and no games where both teams scored

Iceland failed to keep any clean sheets in 3 season games and both teams scored in 2 matches

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head data is available for these two teams

Key Players

For Japan, Keito Nakamura, Junya Ito, and Ayase Ueda are key attacking players

Keito Nakamura was involved in 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games with stable form

Junya Ito scored 2 goals in his last 4 games with stable form

Ayase Ueda showed a rising form trend with 3 goals in his last 4 games

For Iceland, Kristian Hlynsson, Dagur Dan Thórshallsson, and Logi Tómasson are important players

Kristian Hlynsson scored 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games with rising form

Dagur Dan Thórshallsson scored once in his last 3 games with rising form

Logi Tómasson shows a rising form in his last 3 games

Goalkeepers

Japan's goalkeeper Zion Suzuki kept 2 clean sheets in 2 games this season

Iceland's goalkeeper Hákon Valdimarsson failed to keep any clean sheets in 1 season game

Influences

The match will be played on a grass surface at Grenada National Stadium

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