Match report →
Japan – Iceland1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Japan
1.62
Total xG
2.56
Iceland
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Japan | Iceland |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −1.36 | |
| Attack strength (1.5x league average) | +1.19 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.77 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 74 vs 19, 55 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 19 vs 74, 55 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.07 | |
| K. Mitoma not in squad (1 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 50% available) |
Key factors
- Japan's excellent form with five consecutive wins and no goals conceded
- Iceland's defensive vulnerability with an average of 2.33 goals conceded per game this season
- The absence of K. Mitoma for Japan, leaving only 50% of the goal production available
Risks
- Iceland averaged 2.2 shots on target in their last 4 games, indicating few attempts on goal
- Iceland conceded an average of 2.33 goals per away game this season
All probabilities
Result
Japan51%
Draw28%
Iceland21%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Japan or draw79%
Iceland or draw49%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Japan with Keito Nakamura: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Japan 3-4-2-1 · Iceland 4-1-4-1
Japan
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 15 T. Tomiyasu
- 22 M. Yoshida
- 4 K. Itakura
- 10 R. Doan
- 6 W. Endo
- 7 A. Tanaka
- 13 K. Nakamura
- 8 T. Kubo
- 14 J. Ito
- 18 A. Ueda
Iceland
- 12 H. Valdimarsson
- 15 D. Þórhallsson
- 16 S. Þórðarson
- 3 D. Grétarsson
- 23 H. Björgvin Magnússon
- 2 L. Tómasson
- 19 M. Ellertsson
- 18 G. Thórdarson
- 14 A. Baldursson
- 20 K. Hlynsson
- 22 B. Willumsson
Substitutes
- 2 Y. Sugawara
- 21 H. Ito
- 17 Y. Suzuki
- 24 K. Sano
- 20 A. Seko
- 25 J. Suzuki
- 16 T. Watanabe
- 11 D. Maeda
- 19 K. Ogawa
- 26 K. Shiogai
- 23 T. Hayakawa
- 5 Y. Nagatomo
- 9 K. Goto
- 12 K. Osako
- 3 S. Taniguchi
- 9 B. Breki Andrésson
- 7 W. Willumsson
- 21 A. Sampsted
- 10 I. Thorvaldsson
- 1 Ö. Kristinsson
- 11 S. Sigurdarson
- 6 H. Hermannsson
- 4 V. Fridriksson
- 17 A. Gunnarsson
- 13 A. Benediktsson
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →