Match report →
Portugal – Nigeria2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Portugal
2.09
Total xG
3.29
Nigeria
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portugal | Nigeria |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.76x league average) | +1.01 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.85 | |
| Attack strength (1.74x league average) | +0.75 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.37 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 45 vs 5, 40 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 45, 40 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Portugal with a 57% probability
- Portugal's strong home offense averages 3.00 goals per game
- Portugal tactically dominated in the last 5 games with an average of 69% possession and 7.0 shots on target
Risks
- Only 63% of Nigeria's usual starting XI strength is available
- Nigeria averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Portugal57%
Draw23%
Nigeria20%
Double chance
Portugal or draw80%
Nigeria or draw43%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portugal with Pedro Neto: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Nigeria: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Portugal 4-2-3-1 · Nigeria 4-3-1-2
Portugal
- 1 D. Meireles Costa
- 2 N. Cabral Semedo
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 14 G. Inácio
- 5 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 15 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 23 V. Machado Ferreira
- 16 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 18 P. Lomba Neto
- 7 C. Ronaldo
Nigeria
- 23 M. Okoye
- 14 C. Akpan
- 6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
- 21 C. Bassey
- 13 S. Bruno Onyemaechi
- 12 T. Nadi
- 4 O. Ndidi
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 10 F. Dele-Bashiru
- 15 M. Simon
- 22 A. Adams
Substitutes
- 24 S. Costa
- 19 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 13 R. Palma Veiga
- 9 G. Ramos
- 25 N. Mendes
- 12 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 10 B. Silva
- 6 M. Nunes
- 4 T. Araújo
- 22 R. Dantas da Silva
- 26 F. Conceição
- 20 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 21 R. Da Silva Neves
- 11 J. Sequeira
- 27 M. Silva Velho
- 11 S. Chukwueze
- 7 P. Otele
- 9 T. Moffi
- 8 O. Frank
- 16 A. Okonkwo
- 20 R. Nwadike
- 18 E. Fernandez
- 3 Z. Sanusi
- 2 A. Bewene
- 1 F. Uzoho
- 19 E. Onuachu
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