Friendly International

Portugal - Nigeria

06/10/2026, 07:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Portugal
2.1
Total xG
3.3
Nigeria
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PORNIG

Portugal

Attack strength (1.76x league average)
+1.01
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.85
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 45, 40 places gap)
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
-0.10

Nigeria

Attack strength (1.74x league average)
+0.75
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.37
Standings disadvantage (pos 45 vs 5, 40 places gap)
-0.21
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portugal with Pedro Neto: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Nigeria: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

23%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Portugal with a 57% probability
  • Portugal's strong home offense averages 3.00 goals per game
  • Portugal tactically dominated in the last 5 games with an average of 69% possession and 7.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Only 63% of Nigeria's usual starting XI strength is available
  • Nigeria averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Portugal host Nigeria at EstĆ”dio Dr. MagalhĆ£es Pessoa

Friendly International match on June 10, 2026, 9:45 PM

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Portugal shows good form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from the last 5 games (LWDWW)

The team has achieved 2 consecutive wins recently

Nigeria has a form of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss (LWDWD)

Their last match ended in a draw

Statistics

Portugal has averaged 3.33 goals scored per game this season and conceded 1.17 goals

Portugal kept 2 clean sheets in 6 matches

Nigeria scored an average of 1.67 goals per game and conceded 0.83 goals

The team recorded 3 clean sheets in 12 matches

For Portugal, over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 6 matches

Nigeria saw both teams score in 9 out of 12 matches

At home, Portugal averages 3.00 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

Away, Nigeria averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

No data available on previous head-to-head encounters

Key Players

For Portugal, the following players stand out

Cristiano Ronaldo scored 5 goals in the last 5 games with a rising form trend

Bruno Fernandes contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games, showing stable form

Pedro Neto recorded 3 assists in the last 5 games and has a rising form trend

For Nigeria, these players are notable

Akor Adams scored 2 goals in the last 5 games with a rising form trend

Moses Simon scored once in his last 3 appearances and has a stable form trend

Alex Iwobi shows a good rating of 6.81 with a rising form trend in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Diogo Costa is the goalkeeper for Portugal

Portugal has recorded 2 clean sheets this season

Maduka Okoye is the goalkeeper for Nigeria

Maduka Okoye showed a rising form trend and a rating of 7.17 in his last 4 appearances

Nigeria achieved 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Portugal demonstrates a strong offense at home with an average of 3.00 goals scored

Their defense allows only 0.75 goals conceded on average in their home stadium

Nigeria scores an average of 1.75 goals away from home

The team concedes an average of 1.25 goals on the road

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