La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Real Oviedo
03/04/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.7
1.0
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Rayo Vallecano
Real Oviedo
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
26%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Home strength vs. away weakness: Rayo's stable home defense (0.77 goals conceded/game) meets Oviedo's very weak away attack (0.65 goals scored/game)
- Class difference in the table: Rayo's 15th place contrasts sharply with Oviedo's 20th, suggesting a significant difference in quality
- Clear mathematical forecast: The analysis model favors Rayo with a 54% win probability and predicts 1.75 goals for the home team
Risk Factors
- Rayo's weak offense: Despite being favorites, Rayo has failed to score in 10 out of 25 season matches
- Inconsistent form: Rayo has won only one of their last five matches (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), indicating a lack of consistency
Overview
Rayo Vallecano, in 15th place with 27 points, hosts Real Oviedo, bottom of the table in 20th place with 17 points
The La Liga match will take place on March 4, 2026, at 7:00 PM at the Estadio de Vallecas
This is an important clash for both teams in the relegation battle
Form
Rayo Vallecano form: L-L-W-D-D
In the last five games, there has been one win, two draws, and two losses
The team is unbeaten in two games, but drew both of them
Real Oviedo form: L-W-L-D-L
Real Oviedo has won only one of their last five matches, with one draw and three losses
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Rayo Vallecano is defensively stable at home, conceding an average of just 0.77 goals per game
Real Oviedo has massive problems in attack, failing to score in 15 of 25 season matches
Away from home, Oviedo averages only 0.65 goals scored while conceding 1.53 goals
Rayo has kept 7 clean sheets this season, while Oviedo has 6
Head-to-Head
The record in the last five head-to-head encounters is completely balanced
Both teams have won one match each, with three other games ending in a draw
The last meeting ended in a 0-0 draw
The goal difference is slightly in favor of Rayo Vallecano at 6:4
Key Players
For Rayo Vallecano, Jorge de Frutos stands out with 8 goals this season, supported by Ălvaro GarcĂa with 3 goals and 4 assists
Defender Florian Lejeune is a key pillar with a high average rating
For Real Oviedo, Federico Viñas is the most dangerous attacker with 5 goals
Ilyas Chaira has also scored 3 goals
Goalkeeper AarĂłn Escandell is one of the team's highest-rated players
Goalkeepers
In goal for Rayo Vallecano is Augusto Batalla, who has kept 7 clean sheets in 25 appearances this season
Real Oviedo's goal is kept by AarĂłn Escandell, who has managed 6 clean sheets in 25 games
Influences
The home advantage for Rayo Vallecano is statistically evident, especially with their strong defense conceding only 0.77 goals per home game
At the Estadio de Vallecas, there is an average of 2.8 goals per match
In the last five home games, both teams scored on four occasions