La Liga
Valencia - Real Madrid
02/08/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
3.2
2.2
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
19%
Away Win
58%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
39%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
42%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
82%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Offensive Superiority: Real Madrid's attack, led by Kylian Mbappé (22 goals), is in a different league compared to Valencia's offense
- Form and League Standing: Second-placed Real Madrid is in outstanding form, while Valencia in 17th is battling relegation
- Historical Dominance: Real Madrid has clearly dominated recent head-to-head encounters, including a 4-0 win in the last match
Risk Factors
- Key Absences for Real Madrid: The absence of key players like Vinicius JĂșnior and Jude Bellingham could weaken their attack
- Valencia's Home Strength: Valencia concedes significantly fewer goals at home (0.79 per game) than their season average
- Unpredictability at Mestalla: The 100% BTTS statistic in recent home games suggests open matches that could go either way
Overview
Valencia (17th place, 23 points) hosts Real Madrid (2nd place, 54 points) at the Estadio de Mestalla
The La Liga match will take place on February 8, 2026, at 9:00 PM
Valencia aims to move away from the relegation zone, while Real Madrid wants to maintain pressure on the top of the table
Form
Valencia: WWWLL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)
Real Madrid: WWWLW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss)
Real Madrid is in superior form with four wins from their last five matches
Valencia's form has recently dipped with two consecutive losses
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Real Madrid's offense, averaging 2.14 goals per game, is significantly stronger than Valencia's at 1.05 goals
Defensively, Real Madrid is also superior, conceding only 0.82 goals per game, while Valencia concedes 1.59
Valencia's home defense is relatively solid, conceding only 0.79 goals per game
The Estadio de Mestalla has seen an average of 2.8 goals/game and a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 encounters, Real Madrid has dominated with 3 wins to Valencia's one, with one draw
The goal difference is clearly in favor of Real Madrid with 14:6 goals
The last duel ended in a decisive 4-0 victory for Real Madrid
Key Players
Hugo Duro is Valencia's top scorer with 7 goals this season
Pepelu and Arnaut Danjuma are other key offensive players for the home team
For Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé is the standout player with an impressive 22 season goals
Arda GĂŒler has established himself as a key playmaker with 7 assists
Goalkeepers
Valencia's goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Real Madrid's Thibaut Courtois has a significantly better record with 10 clean sheets
Influences
Valencia's home advantage could play a role defensively, as they concede only 0.79 goals per game at home
Historical data from the stadium shows a remarkable tendency for games where both teams score (100% in the last 5 matches)
On a grass surface, Real Madrid has a far better record with 8 wins out of 10 games compared to Valencia's 4 wins