Friendly International

Peru - Spain

06/09/2026, 02:00 AM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Peru
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Spain
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
PERSPA

Peru

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-1.37
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+1.10
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 48 vs 1, 47 places gap)
-0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.08

Spain

Attack strength (2.57x league average)
+1.97
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.72
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.29
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 48, 47 places gap)
+0.10

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Spain with Álex Baena: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Spain: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 3
    Spain: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Peru with JesĂșs Pretell: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Peru: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

29%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Spain has a slightly higher win probability of 37% compared to 34% for Peru
  • Spain's Defense: Only 0.33 goals conceded per game and 2 clean sheets on season average
  • Tactical Dominance: Spain in the last 5 matches possession-dominant (66%) and averaged 6.8 shots on target (offensively strong)
Risk Factors
  • Peru's short recovery time: Only 3 days of rest since the last match
  • Spain's slowing goal production: Currently 2.5 goals, season average is 3.1
  • Peru's low shot on target efficiency: Averaged 2.8 shots on target in the last 5 matches
Overview

Peru will host Spain in a Friendly International match at Estadio Cuauhtémoc on June 9, 2026, 3:00 AM. This game serves as preparation for both teams and an opportunity to fine-tune their squads. Mathematical predictions suggest a balanced encounter, with a slightly higher win probability for Spain at 37% compared to 34% for Peru.

Form

Peru's current form (DLLDW) across all competitions shows a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Peru won their last match. Spain's form (WDWDD) over the last five games includes 2 wins and 3 draws, remaining undefeated; their last match ended in a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Peru has averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game. Spain maintains a season average of 1.33 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per game, with 2 clean sheets. Matches at Estadio Cuauhtémoc have seen an average of 2.2 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

No data on previous head-to-head encounters between Peru and Spain is available in the provided dataset.

Key Players

For Peru, Jairo VĂ©lez stands out with 3 season goals and an average rating of 7.29 in 3 appearances, Renzo GarcĂ©s with 1 season goal in one appearance, and Yoshimar YotĂșn with 1 season assist and an average rating of 7.03 in 3 appearances. For Spain, Ferran Torres has 1 season goal and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.27 in 3 appearances, Mikel Oyarzabal boasts 2 season goals in one appearance, and Pau CubarsĂ­ has 1 season assist in one appearance.

Goalkeepers

Peru's goalkeeper, Pedro Gallese, has played in 3 season matches with an average rating of 6.57, recording 0 clean sheets. For Spain, goalkeeper Unai SimĂłn played in one season match with an average rating of 7.39, contributing to 2 clean sheets for his team.

Influences

Estadio Cuauhtémoc, a grass pitch, has seen an average of 2.2 goals per game in its last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games. Peru's home performance this season includes 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game.

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