Match report →
Peru – Spain1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Peru
1.29
Total xG
2.67
Spain
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Peru | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.57x league average) | +1.97 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.72 | |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −1.37 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +1.10 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 48 vs 1, 47 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 48, 47 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.08 |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: Spain has a slightly higher win probability of 37% compared to 34% for Peru
- Spain's Defense: Only 0.33 goals conceded per game and 2 clean sheets on season average
- Tactical Dominance: Spain in the last 5 matches possession-dominant (66%) and averaged 6.8 shots on target (offensively strong)
Risks
- Peru's short recovery time: Only 3 days of rest since the last match
- Spain's slowing goal production: Currently 2.5 goals, season average is 3.1
- Peru's low shot on target efficiency: Averaged 2.8 shots on target in the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Peru33%
Draw29%
Spain37%
Double chance
Peru or draw63%
Spain or draw67%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Spain with Álex Baena: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Spain: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Spain: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Peru with Jesús Pretell: 1 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Peru: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Lineups
Peru 4-4-2 · Spain 4-2-3-1
Peru
- 1 P. Gallese Quiróz
- 22 O. Sonne
- 3 F. Gruber
- 15 R. Garcés Mori
- 4 M. López Lanfranco
- 6 J. Pretell Panta
- 8 E. Noriega
- 19 V. Yotún Flores
- 27 J. Vidales Lature
- 11 J. Vélez Cedeño
- 9 A. Ugarriza Tello
Spain
- 23 U. Simón Mendibil
- 5 M. Llorente Moreno
- 22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 14 A. Laporte
- 24 M. Cucurella
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 16 Rodri
- 20 P. López
- 7 F. Torres García
- 21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
- 15 A. Rodríguez
Substitutes
- 2 A. Barco Del Solar
- 24 B. Soyer
- 7 K. Cabrera Nakamura
- 18 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 16 M. Lazo Zapata
- 13 M. Huamán Asis
- 17 J. Concha Gonzáles
- 23 R. Vilca Betetta
- 20 M. Castro Rufino
- 14 A. Quiróz Figueroa
- 25 Matias Zegarra
- 12 A. Duarte Preuss
- 21 M. Cordova
- 3 A. Grimaldo García
- 10 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 4 E. García
- 9 Pablo Gaviria
- 13 J. Pons
- 2 M. Pubill Pagès
- 26 B. Iglesias Quintas
- 11 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 18 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 6 M. Merino Zazón
- 12 P. Porro Sauceda
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