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Argentina – Honduras2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Argentina
2.55
Total xG
3.46
Honduras
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Argentina | Honduras |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.43x league average) | +1.24 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.73 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.69 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.63 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 65, 62 places gap) | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 65 vs 3, 62 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 33% of goal output missing (only 54% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical Squad Impact: Only 55% of Argentina's usual starting XI strength is available
- Argentina's Strong Offense: Averaging 3.5 home goals per game and 7.8 shots on target in the last 4 matches, with a mathematically predicted 2.55 goals
- Clear Favorites: Mathematical analysis indicates Argentina as clear favorites with a 72% win probability
Risks
- Lack of head-to-head matches as a comparison basis
- Limited data available for xG values in Argentina's recent matches
- Honduras conceded an average of 2.0 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Argentina72%
Draw18%
Honduras10%
Double chance
Argentina or draw90%
Honduras or draw28%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
1:1
8%
3:1
8%
Lineups
Argentina 4-4-2 · Honduras 4-2-3-1
Argentina
- 1 J. Musso
- 28 A. Giay
- 19 N. Otamendi
- 6 L. Martínez
- 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
- 8 V. Barco
- 14 E. Palacios
- 11 G. Lo Celso
- 16 T. Almada
- 17 G. Simeone
- 22 L. Martínez
Honduras
- 1 E. Menjivar Jonhnson
- 6 C. Flores
- 21 G. Sacaza Murillo
- 2 D. Maldonado Munguía
- 8 J. Rosales Erazo
- 5 K. Arriaga
- 16 E. Rodríguez
- 18 D. Moncada
- 10 L. Palma Oseguera
- 7 R. Rivas Vindel
- 9 J. Benguche Ramírez
Substitutes
- 29 N. Capaldo
- 15 N. González
- 7 R. de Paul
- 25 F. Medina
- 12 G. Rulli
- 20 A. Mac Allister
- 24 E. Fernández
- 13 C. Romero
- 10 L. Messi
- 21 J. López
- 30 I. Ovando
- 32 T. Aranda
- 27 S. Beltrán
- 34 J. Freitas
- 31 Simón Escobar
- 15 D. Ruiz
- 4 L. Vega
- 17 J. Alvarez Rodas
- 14 J. Reyes Cerna
- 11 E. Arzú Suazo
- 12 A. Guity Barrios
- 13 C. Bennett Zelaya
- 19 Kevin Josué
- 22 L. Ortiz
- 24 K. Figuora
- 3 J. Aguilera
- 25 J. Miranda Miguel
- 26 Cristián Canales
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