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Argentina – Iceland3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Argentina
2.52
Total xG
3.12
Iceland
0.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Argentina | Iceland |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −1.21 | |
| Attack strength (2.02x league average) | +1.20 | |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.84 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.72 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.65 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.55 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 74, 71 places gap) | +0.18 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 74 vs 3, 71 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis sees Argentina as clear favorites with a 78% win probability
- Form: Argentina won their last 5 games, while Iceland failed to win any of their last 5 away matches
- Tactics: Argentina showed dominance in their last 5 games with an average of 70% possession and 7.8 shots on target
- Squad Impact: Only 23% of Iceland's usual goal production is available, significantly weakening their attack
Risks
- Fatigue: Argentina has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Tactics: Iceland averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
- Squad Impact: Only 65% of Argentina's usual starting eleven strength is available
All probabilities
Result
Argentina78%
Draw16%
Iceland6%
Double chance
Argentina or draw94%
Iceland or draw22%
No draw84%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
2:0
14%
3:0
12%
2:1
8%
1:1
8%
4:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Argentina with Alexis Mac Allister: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Iceland with Kristian Hlynsson: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Argentina: first goal in 5 of 5 games (100%)
- Iceland: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Argentina: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Argentina 4-4-2 · Iceland 4-4-2
Argentina
- 12 G. Rulli
- 28 A. Giay
- 19 N. Otamendi
- 6 L. Martínez
- 25 F. Medina
- 17 G. Simeone
- 11 G. Lo Celso
- 14 E. Palacios
- 8 V. Barco
- 18 N. Paz Martínez
- 21 J. López
Iceland
- 1 E. Olafsson
- 4 G. Pálsson
- 3 D. Grétarsson
- 23 H. Björgvin Magnússon
- 2 L. Tómasson
- 19 M. Ellertsson
- 8 Í. Jóhannesson
- 14 A. Baldursson
- 11 A. Gudmundsson
- 7 H. Haraldsson
- 9 O. Óskarsson
Substitutes
- 29 N. Capaldo
- 1 J. Musso
- 15 N. González
- 16 T. Almada
- 7 R. de Paul
- 26 N. Molina Lucero
- 9 J. Álvarez
- 20 A. Mac Allister
- 24 E. Fernández
- 13 C. Romero
- 22 L. Martínez
- 10 L. Messi
- 4 G. Montiel
- 30 I. Ovando
- 27 S. Beltrán
- 12 H. Valdimarsson
- 21 A. Sigurdsson
- 22 D. Gudjohnsen
- 13 A. Einarsson
- 5 G. Thórdarson
- 10 G. Sigurðsson
- 20 K. Hlynsson
- 16 K. Ingason
- 18 J. Thorsteinsson
- 15 D. Þórhallsson
- 6 H. Hermannsson
- 17 A. Gunnarsson
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