Friendly International

Argentina - Iceland

06/10/2026, 01:00 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Argentina
2.5
Total xG
3.1
Iceland
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

14%

3:0

12%

2:1

8%

1:1

8%

4:0

7%
What influences the xG?
ARGICE

Argentina

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-1.21
Attack strength (2.02x league average)
+1.20
Rising form (3.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.72
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.65
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.55
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 74, 71 places gap)
+0.18
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Full strength squad available

Iceland

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.84
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.51
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 74 vs 3, 71 places gap)
-0.11
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentina with Alexis Mac Allister: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Iceland with Kristian Hlynsson: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Argentina: first goal in 5 of 5 games (100%)

  • 4
    Iceland: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Argentina: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

78%

Draw

16%

Away Win

6%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

94%

Away or Draw

22%

No Draw

84%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis sees Argentina as clear favorites with a 78% win probability
  • Form: Argentina won their last 5 games, while Iceland failed to win any of their last 5 away matches
  • Tactics: Argentina showed dominance in their last 5 games with an average of 70% possession and 7.8 shots on target
  • Squad Impact: Only 23% of Iceland's usual goal production is available, significantly weakening their attack
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue: Argentina has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Tactics: Iceland averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
  • Squad Impact: Only 65% of Argentina's usual starting eleven strength is available
Overview

Argentina host Iceland at Laugardalsvöllur for a Friendly International match on June 10, 2026, 3:00 AM. The match indicates a clear favorite role for Argentina, while Iceland enters as an underdog. This is an international friendly where teams test their form.

Form

Argentina is in outstanding form with 5 consecutive wins (Form: WWWWW)

They won their last match 2-0 against Honduras

Iceland, however, is in a difficult phase with 3 losses and 2 draws in their last 5 games (Form: LLDDL)

They lost their last match 0-1 against Japan

Statistics

Argentina averages 1.72 goals scored per game this season and concedes only 0.56 goals

At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 1.67 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded

Iceland has a higher scoring rate of 2.17 goals per game but also concedes 1.83 goals

Away from home, Iceland is defensively vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.00 goals and scoring 3.00 goals

Matches at Laugardalsvöllur see an average of 4.0 goals per game

In 4 out of 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and 4 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

The two teams have only met once before

The sole encounter on June 16, 2018, ended in a 1-1 draw

Both teams scored 1 goal each in that match

The historical record is even

Key Players

For Argentina, José Manuel López stands out in attack with 2 goals in his last 5 games

Giuliano Simeone showed stable form with 1 goal in his last 5 games

Nico Paz has stable form with 1 assist in his last 5 games

For Iceland, Orri Óskarsson is an important attacker with 4 goals in his last 5 games

Victor Pálsson recently scored 1 goal

Hákon Arnar Haraldsson contributed 1 goal in his last 4 games

Goalkeepers

Gerónimo Rulli is in goal for Argentina

Argentina has recorded 11 clean sheets this season

Elías Ólafsson is the goalkeeper for Iceland

Iceland has achieved 2 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at Laugardalsvöllur

Argentina's home strength is reflected in an average of 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded at home

Iceland's away weakness is underlined by an average of 4.00 goals conceded away from home

The venue is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 4.0 goals per game

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