Match report →
Bolivia – Scotland0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Bolivia
1.12
Total xG
2.62
Scotland
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bolivia | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.39x league average) | −1.34 | |
| Attack strength (1.82x league average) | +1.32 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −1.01 | |
| Defensive weakness (0.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.99 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.87 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 77 vs 43, 34 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 43 vs 77, 34 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.00 | |
| Fernando Nava not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 33% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Bolivia will play with only 33% of their usual starting XI's goal threat, without Fernando Nava
- Scotland's possession-dominant play (59% possession) with an average of 5.8 shots on target
- The mathematical analysis predicts Scotland as the favored team with a win probability of 44%
Risks
- B. Gilmour (Knee Injury) is absent for Scotland
- Bolivia's low goal production of an average of 0.8 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Bolivia27%
Draw29%
Scotland44%
Double chance
Bolivia or draw56%
Scotland or draw73%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bolivia with Fernando Nava: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
Lineups
Bolivia 4-3-3 · Scotland 4-4-2
Bolivia
- 23 G. Vizcarra Bruckner
- 21 Y. Rocha Rodriguez
- 4 L. Haquin Lopez
- 5 E. Morales Badillo
- 17 R. Fernández Toro
- 14 R. Tomé de Araújo Benegas
- 16 E. Vaca Moreno
- 15 G. Villamíl Cortéz
- 9 D. Ribera Bruun
- 7 M. Terceros
- 13 M. Paniagua
Scotland
- 1 A. Gunn
- 2 A. Hickey
- 5 G. Hanley
- 13 J. Hendry
- 3 A. Robertson
- 17 B. Doak
- 4 S. McTominay
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 11 R. Christie
- 20 L. Shankland
- 10 C. Adams
Substitutes
- 2 D. Arroyo
- 1 C. Lampe Porras
- 6 M. Tórrez Contreras
- 3 L. Macazaga Ojopi
- 12 G. Govea Herrera
- 20 C. Melgar Vargas
- 22 L. Zabala Zeballos
- 18 G. Centella Bazan
- 11 N. Nacif Joffre
- 19 ?. López
- 8 S. Viviani Hinojosa
- 22 N. Patterson
- 7 J. McGinn
- 9 L. Dykes
- 23 K. McLean
- 18 G. Hirst
- 16 D. Hyam
- 14 R. Stewart
- 25 F. Curtis
- 12 L. Kelly
- 15 J. Souttar
- 24 A. Ralston
- 6 K. Tierney
- 26 S. McKenna
- 8 T. Fletcher
- 21 Craig Gordon
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →