Friendly International

Romania - Wales

06/06/2026, 05:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Romania
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Wales
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ROMWAL

Romania

Attack weakness (0.35x league average)
-1.28
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.96
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.51
Standings disadvantage (pos 51 vs 30, 21 places gap)
-0.22
Full strength squad available

Wales

Attack weakness (0.42x league average)
-0.39
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 30 vs 51, 21 places gap)
+0.08
100% of goal output missing (only 57% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.38
+0.38
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

31%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Romania's limited offensive power: According to squadImpact, it is critical as only 0% of the usual goal production is available
  • Low goal threat from both teams: Romania averages ~0.8 goals and Wales ~0.5 goals per game, both teams also have few shots on target (Romania Ø 3.5, Wales Ø 2.8)
  • Balanced forecast: The pipeline analysis predicts a very close outcome with a home win of 37%, a draw of 31%, and an away win of 32%
Risk Factors
  • Wales' squad strength: Only 57% of Wales' usual starting XI strength is available
  • Wales' offensive creation: Wales averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 4 games
Overview

Romania host Wales at Stadionul Steaua, Bucuresti. This is a Friendly International match on June 6, 2026, 7:45 PM. Both teams are using this opportunity for international testing.

Form

Romania's current form is LWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This includes 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last match ended in a draw. Wales shows a form of LLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This corresponds to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Wales recently drew their last two matches.

Statistics

Romania has averaged 0.5 goals scored per game and 1.5 goals conceded per game this season. They have kept no clean sheets and scored in one match. Wales has averaged 1.0 goals scored per game and 1.0 goals conceded per game. They have kept no clean sheets and scored in both matches. At Stadionul Steaua, an average of 4.0 goals were scored in one game, with both teams scoring in 1 of 1 games and over 2.5 goals occurring in 1 of 1 games.

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head matches between Romania and Wales were found in the dataset.

Key Players

For Romania, key players include Louis Munteanu (3 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games, average rating 7.19), Ștefan Baiaram (1 goal in last 5 games, average rating 6.95), and Vlad Dragomir (1 goal in last 5 games, average rating 6.85). For Wales, Neco Williams (1 assist this season, average rating 7.21), Ethan Ampadu (average rating 6.91 in last 5 games), and Josh Sheehan (average rating 7.01 this season) stand out.

Goalkeepers

Romania's goalkeeper Otto Hindrich had an average rating of 6.21 in his last 4 games. Wales' goalkeeper Danny Ward did not play in the last 5 games. Both teams have zero clean sheets this season.

Influences

Matches at Stadionul Steaua, Bucuresti, tend to be high-scoring with an average of 4.0 goals per game. In the only recorded match, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were registered.

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