Match report →
Romania – Wales2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Romania
1.24
Total xG
2.39
Wales
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Romania | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.35x league average) | −1.28 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.96 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.51 | |
| Attack weakness (0.42x league average) | −0.39 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 51 vs 30, 21 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 30 vs 51, 21 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 57% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Romania's limited offensive power: According to squadImpact, it is critical as only 0% of the usual goal production is available
- Low goal threat from both teams: Romania averages ~0.8 goals and Wales ~0.5 goals per game, both teams also have few shots on target (Romania Ø 3.5, Wales Ø 2.8)
- Balanced forecast: The pipeline analysis predicts a very close outcome with a home win of 37%, a draw of 31%, and an away win of 32%
Risks
- Wales' squad strength: Only 57% of Wales' usual starting XI strength is available
- Wales' offensive creation: Wales averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 4 games
All probabilities
Result
Romania37%
Draw31%
Wales32%
Double chance
Romania or draw68%
Wales or draw63%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
Lineups
Romania 4-3-3 · Wales 4-2-3-1
Romania
- 12 O. Hindrich
- 23 D. Sorescu
- 15 A. Burcă
- 13 M. Ilie
- 17 L. Eissat
- 10 N. Stanciu
- 6 T. Băluţă
- 22 V. Dragomir
- 8 D. Olaru
- 19 L. Munteanu
- 11 Ș. Baiaram
Wales
- 12 D. Ward
- 3 N. Williams
- 6 J. Rodon
- 5 E. Ampadu
- 18 R. Norrington-Davies
- 22 J. Sheehan
- 10 K. Andrews
- 11 B. Johnson
- 23 N. Broadhead
- 20 D. James
- 13 K. Moore
Substitutes
- 1 Ș. Târnovanu
- 3 M. Popescu
- 21 O. Moruţan
- 18 D. Matei
- 4 A. Rus
- 24 A. Coubis
- 2 T. Strata
- 16 M. Aioani
- 9 D. Drăguş
- 25 C. Cirjan
- 14 M. Dobre
- 7 F. Coman
- 20 A. Borza
- 1 K. Darlow
- 7 D. Brooks
- 21 T. King
- 14 C. Roberts
- 15 J. Dasilva
- 2 C. Mepham
- 17 R. Kpakio
- 8 J. Colwill
- 24 I. Davies
- 9 L. Koumas
- 19 S. Thomas
- 4 B. Davies
- 25 O. Bostock
- 26 C. Congreve
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