Match report →
Switzerland – Australia1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Switzerland
2.34
Total xG
3.56
Australia
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Switzerland | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.09x league average) | +0.62 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.42 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | −0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 25 vs 17, 8 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 25, 8 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| Breel Embolo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 37% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis identifies Switzerland as a clear favorite with a 61% win probability
- Venue: Snapdragon Stadium is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.8 goals per game
- Offensive Strength: Switzerland has consistently scored an average of ~3.8 goals per game recently
Risks
- Data availability: There are no historical head-to-head records for these teams
- Australia's offensive performance: Australia averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited attacking pressure
All probabilities
Result
Switzerland61%
Draw21%
Australia18%
Double chance
Switzerland or draw82%
Australia or draw39%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
2:1
10%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
2:2
6%
1:2
5%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Australia with Alessandro Circati: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Switzerland: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 5 games)
- Australia: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Switzerland 4-4-2 · Australia 3-4-2-1
Switzerland
- 1 G. Kobel
- 3 S. Widmer
- 4 N. Elvedi
- 5 M. Akanji
- 13 R. Rodríguez Araya
- 20 M. Aebischer
- 10 G. Xhaka
- 8 R. Freuler
- 11 D. Ndoye
- 9 J. Manzambi
- 23 M. Amdouni
Australia
- 18 P. Beach
- 3 A. Circati
- 19 H. Souttar
- 25 L. Herrington
- 15 K. Trewin
- 13 A. O'Neill
- 24 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 16 A. Behich
- 20 C. Volpato
- 17 N. Irankunda
- 26 T. Yengi
Substitutes
- 22 F. Rieder
- 2 M. Muheim
- 24 A. Amenda
- 16 C. Fassnacht
- 21 M. Keller
- 25 L. Jaquez
- 12 Y. Mvogo
- 15 D. Sow
- 18 E. Cömert
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 19 N. Okafor
- 14 A. Jasari
- 26 C. Itten
- 22 J. Irvine
- 8 C. Metcalfe
- 1 M. Ryan
- 11 A. Mabil
- 21 C. Burgess
- 5 J. Bos
- 10 A. Hrustic
- 4 J. Italiano
- 9 M. Toure
- 12 P. Izzo
- 2 M. Degenek
- 6 J. Geria
- 23 N. Velupillay
- 14 C. Devlin
- 7 M. Leckie
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