Friendly International

Switzerland - Australia

06/06/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Switzerland
2.3
Total xG
3.6
Australia
1.2
Most Likely Scores

2:1

10%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%

2:2

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SWIAUS

Switzerland

Attack strength (2.09x league average)
+0.62
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.18
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 25, 8 places gap)
+0.09
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.04
Breel Embolo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Australia

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.42
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.38
Standings disadvantage (pos 25 vs 17, 8 places gap)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.38
+0.38
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Australia with Alessandro Circati: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Switzerland: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 5 games)

  • 3
    Australia: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

21%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis identifies Switzerland as a clear favorite with a 61% win probability
  • Venue: Snapdragon Stadium is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.8 goals per game
  • Offensive Strength: Switzerland has consistently scored an average of ~3.8 goals per game recently
Risk Factors
  • Data availability: There are no historical head-to-head records for these teams
  • Australia's offensive performance: Australia averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited attacking pressure
Overview

Switzerland and Australia meet in a Friendly International match at Snapdragon Stadium

The game takes place on June 6, 2026, 9:00 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a win for Switzerland with a probability of 61%

The model expects 2.34 goals for Switzerland and 1.22 goals for Australia

Form

Switzerland's form in the last five matches is WWLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This accounts for 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last match was a 4-1 victory against Jordan

Australia shows a form of LLWWL

This means 2 wins and 3 losses

The last result was a 0-1 defeat against Mexico

Statistics

Switzerland scores an average of 2.33 goals per game this season and concedes 1.67 goals

The team kept 1 clean sheet

Both teams scored in 2 matches, and 2 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Australia scores an average of 2 goals per game and concedes 0.67 goals

Australia kept 1 clean sheet

Both teams scored in 1 match, and 1 match ended with over 2.5 goals

Snapdragon Stadium records an average of 4.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches (80%), and over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 matches (100%)

Key Players

For Switzerland, Granit Xhaka (1 goal, 1 assist, avg 7.5 rating), Dan Ndoye (2 goals, avg 6.86 rating), and Michel Aebischer (1 assist, avg 6.84 rating) are crucial

Breel Embolo (2 goals, 0 assists) is not in the starting lineup, accounting for 9% of the usual goal threat

For Australia, Nestory Irankunda (2 goals, avg 7.35 rating), Alessandro Circati (1 goal, avg 7.08 rating), and Lucas Herrington (avg 6.69 rating) are important players

Goalkeepers

Switzerland's goalkeeper, Gregor Kobel, recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Australia's goalkeeper, Patrick Beach, kept 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

Snapdragon Stadium is known for high goal numbers, with an average of 4.8 goals per game

All matches saw over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 80% of them

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