Friendly International

Ecuador - Saudi Arabia

05/31/2026, 12:00 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Ecuador
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Saudi Arabia
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ECUSA

Ecuador

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.80
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.49
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.33
Standings advantage (pos 24 vs 59, 35 places gap)
+0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
44% of goal output missing (only 41% available)

Saudi Arabia

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.67
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.45
Standings disadvantage (pos 59 vs 24, 35 places gap)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Ecuador with Leonardo Campana: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (4 of 6 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Ecuador with 55% probability
  • Weak offense: Saudi Arabia has 0% of its usual starting XI goal-scoring threat available
  • Form difference: Ecuador is unbeaten in their last 5 games, while Saudi Arabia has three consecutive losses
Risk Factors
  • Limited goal threat: Ecuador has only 42% of its usual starting XI goal-scoring threat available
  • Offensive weakness: Saudi Arabia averaged 1.2 shots on target in recent matches (few attempts)
  • Defensive vulnerability: Saudi Arabia conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game this season
Overview

Ecuador hosts Saudi Arabia in a Friendly International match at Estadio OlĂ­mpico Atahualpa on May 30, 2026, 01:30 AM. This encounter offers both teams an opportunity to test their form outside of league competition. It is an international friendly with no league table implications

Form

Ecuador is undefeated in their last five matches with a form of D-D-W-D-D (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team achieved one win and four draws

Saudi Arabia's recent form is W-W-L-L-L from their last five games

They secured two wins and three losses, including three consecutive defeats

Statistics

Ecuador has scored an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 1.0 goals

In two matches, both teams scored (BTTS), and no match had over 2.5 goals

According to advanced statistics, Ecuador consistently scores approximately 1.2 goals per game

Saudi Arabia has scored an average of 0.5 goals and conceded 3.0 goals per game this season

One match saw both teams score, and two matches had over 2.5 goals

Advanced statistics indicate Saudi Arabia consistently scores about 0.8 goals per game and has conceded an average of 2.48 goals this season

Key Players

For Ecuador in midfield, Denil Castillo is expected to play

In attack, John Yeboah has 1 season goal and an average rating of 7.03

Jordy Caicedo contributed 1 goal in the last 5 games and shows a rising form trend

For Saudi Arabia, Salem Al-Dawsari is a key attacker, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games and a rating of 7.37

Musab Al-Juwayr in midfield also scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games, showing a rising form trend

Defender Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat scored 1 goal in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Ecuador's starting goalkeeper is Moisés Ramírez, who has no season appearances

Mohammed Al-Owais will be in goal for Saudi Arabia, for whom no season data is available

Both teams have achieved 0 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will take place at Estadio OlĂ­mpico Atahualpa

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