Match report →
Ecuador – Saudi Arabia2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Ecuador
1.59
Total xG
2.38
Saudi Arabia
0.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ecuador | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.80 | |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.67 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.49 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 59 vs 24, 35 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 24 vs 59, 35 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 44% of goal output missing (only 41% available) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Ecuador with 55% probability
- Weak offense: Saudi Arabia has 0% of its usual starting XI goal-scoring threat available
- Form difference: Ecuador is unbeaten in their last 5 games, while Saudi Arabia has three consecutive losses
Risks
- Limited goal threat: Ecuador has only 42% of its usual starting XI goal-scoring threat available
- Offensive weakness: Saudi Arabia averaged 1.2 shots on target in recent matches (few attempts)
- Defensive vulnerability: Saudi Arabia conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
Ecuador55%
Draw28%
Saudi Arabia17%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Ecuador or draw83%
Saudi Arabia or draw45%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:0
13%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ecuador with Leonardo Campana: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (4 of 6 games)
Lineups
Ecuador 4-2-3-1 · Saudi Arabia 4-4-2
Ecuador
- 12 W. Ramírez Preciado
- 21 J. Hurtado Cheme
- 25 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 2 F. Torres Caicedo
- 7 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 6 D. Castillo
- 8 A. Valencia
- 9 J. Zamora
- 15 D. Guagua Silva
- 20 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 16 J. Caicedo Medina
Saudi Arabia
- 21 M. Al Owais
- 13 N. Boushal
- 4 A. Al Amri
- 5 H. Al Tambakti
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 26 M. Al Shamat
- 28 M. Kanno
- 15 A. Alkhaibari
- 10 S. Al Dawsari
- 9 F. Albirakan
- 7 M. Aljuwayr
Substitutes
- 24 J. Arévalo Mera
- 10 R. Páez Andrade
- 11 K. Rodríguez Cortéz
- 26 Y. Medina Ortiz
- 18 J. Mercado Cuero
- 17 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 14 M. Dacosta Gonzalez
- 1 C. Loor Santamaría
- 5 J. Alcívar Macías
- 22 G. Valle Bustamante
- 19 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 3 F. Caicedo Jaramillo
- 4 D. Ordóñez Corozo
- 13 L. Fragozo Castrillon
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 3 A. Lajami
- 19 A. Al Hamdan
- 2 A. Majrashi
- 18 W. Saleh
- 17 K. Al Ghannam
- 23 A. Atiah
- 27 S. Madash
- 25 J. Abdullatif Ahm
- 14 H. Kadesh
- 30 A. Hejji
- 22 A. Al Kassar
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →