La Liga
Espanyol - Celta de Vigo
02/14/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.0
1.5
1:1
13%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:2
6%2:0
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
27%
Away Win
36%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
64%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Significant personnel issues: Celta de Vigo is severely weakened, with only 57% of their season's goal production available in the starting lineup, notably due to the absence of key players like Iago Aspas
- Form versus history: Espanyol's disastrous current form (four consecutive losses) starkly contrasts with their historical dominance in this fixture (four wins in the last five games)
- Defensive vulnerability: Both teams have recently shown defensive weaknesses, with Espanyol conceding an average of 2.4 goals and Celta 1.75, supporting the 62% probability of both teams scoring
Risk Factors
- Espanyol's slump: Despite home advantage and a good H2H record, four consecutive losses make Espanyol an unpredictable factor
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical analysis shows an extremely close race with win probabilities of 37% for Espanyol and 36% for Celta, indicating an open match
- Missing firepower: The absence of key attackers on both sides could make the game less high-scoring than expected, despite the prediction for both teams to score
Overview
A direct clash for the European places, with Espanyol (6th place, 34 points) taking on Celta de Vigo (7th place, 33 points)
The La Liga match will take place on February 14, 2026, at 2:00 PM at the RCDE Stadium
As direct table neighbors, the match promises high tension as only one point separates the teams
Form
Espanyol is in a form crisis with four consecutive losses and an overall form of DLLLL from their last five games (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)
Celta de Vigo's form of WLDDL is also inconsistent, but they have managed one win, two draws, and two losses
Celta has been particularly weak in the league with a form of LDDDD, indicating a winless streak
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Over the season, Celta de Vigo has been slightly stronger offensively, scoring an average of 1.30 goals per game, while Espanyol averages 1.17
Defensively, the visitors are also more stable with 1.09 goals conceded per game compared to Espanyol's 1.35
Both teams scored in 14 of Celta's 23 matches, while this was the case in 12 of Espanyol's 23 games
Espanyol has failed to score in 5 matches this season, Celta de Vigo in 4
Head-to-Head
In head-to-head comparisons, Espanyol has a clearly dominant record, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters
Celta de Vigo has only managed one victory in this period, with no matches ending in a draw
The goal difference of 10:5 also clearly favors Espanyol
The last meeting was won by Espanyol with a 1-0 scoreline
Key Players
For Espanyol, Pere Milla with 6 goals this season and Carlos Romero with 4 goals are important attacking players
Edu ExpĂłsito stands out in midfield as a playmaker with 5 assists
For Celta de Vigo, Borja Iglesias is by far the most dangerous attacker with 9 goals this season
Williot Swedberg has also scored 3 goals this season
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeping duel features Manuel Iori for Espanyol and IonuÈ Radu for Celta de Vigo
Both keepers have kept 7 clean sheets this season and are key performers for their respective teams
Influences
The RCDE Stadium has not been a venue for many goals recently, with an average of 2.2 goals in the last five home games
In only 40% of these matches, both teams scored
Both teams are accustomed to the natural grass pitch at the stadium