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Slovakia – Montenegro2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Slovakia
1.71
Total xG
2.79
Montenegro
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Slovakia | Montenegro |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.67x league average) | +0.71 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | −0.50 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.48 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 80 vs 42, 38 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 42 vs 80, 38 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| S. Mugoša not in squad (1 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 80% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Slovakia with a probability of 51%
- Slovakia showed a strong offense in their last 2 matches with an average of 7.5 shots on target
- Montenegro played a very possession-oriented style in their last 5 matches with an average of 61% possession
Risks
- Only 67% of the seasonal goal threat from Slovakia's starting lineup is available
- No head-to-head data is available for the two teams
- The data situation for xG values for Montenegro's last 5 matches is incomplete (4 out of 5 missing)
All probabilities
Result
Slovakia51%
Draw27%
Montenegro23%
Double chance
Slovakia or draw77%
Montenegro or draw49%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
2:2
Final score
Lineups
Slovakia 4-3-3 · Montenegro 4-4-2
Slovakia
- 12 J. Surovčík
- 2 P. Pekarík
- 3 D. Vavro
- 19 D. Krcik
- 16 A. Obert
- 21 M. Bero
- 8 O. Duda
- 18 A. Gajdoš
- 7 T. Suslov
- 9 R. Boženík
- 20 A. Kaprálik
Montenegro
- 27 M. Dubljanić
- 23 A. Marušić
- 4 S. Milic
- 5 I. Vujačić
- 24 M. Perović
- 25 S. Haksabanovic
- 10 M. Janković
- 21 A. Bulatović
- 15 S. Loncar
- 20 M. Osmajić
- 18 B. Sekulić
Substitutes
- 14 M. Sauer
- 4 M. Valjent
- 23 D. Takáč
- 6 P. Pokorny
- 5 Ľ. Šatka
- 1 Ľ. Belko
- 25 K. Bari
- 24 M. Faško
- 13 R. Čerepkai
- 10 L. Bénes
- 26 H. Pávek
- 11 R. Galčík
- 22 P. Kováčik
- 2 M. Roganović
- 9 A. Kostić
- 3 A. Ražnatović
- 8 D. Camaj
- 16 O. Gašević
- 17 M. Šimun
- 22 V. Đukanović
- 6 S. Rubežić
- 19 N. Šipčić
- 12 D. Petković
- 1 B. Popović
- 14 M. Brnović
- 13 B. Krijestarac
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