Match report →
Morocco – Norway1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Morocco
2.02
Total xG
3.05
Norway
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Morocco | Norway |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −1.01 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.73 | |
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | −0.60 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.4 season average) | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 31 vs 11, 20 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 31, 20 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| Attack strength (1.71x league average) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 54% of goal output missing (only 100% available) |
Key factors
- Morocco's strong home form: Pipeline analysis predicts a home win with 59% probability and 2.02 expected home goals
- Morocco's offensive strength: Averaging 3.0 home goals per game against Norway's vulnerable away defense with 2.0 goals conceded per game
- Morocco's possession and shots on target: The team was ball-dominant in the last 5 games (62% possession) and averaged 6.8 shots on target
Risks
- Norway's weak away defense, with an average of 2.0 goals conceded per away game
- Limited data availability for head-to-head matches as no historical meetings are available
All probabilities
Result
Morocco59%
Draw24%
Norway17%
Double chance
Morocco or draw83%
Norway or draw41%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
3:1
7%
3:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Morocco: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Morocco: 57% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 14)
- Morocco: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Morocco with Achraf Hakimi: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Morocco: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Morocco 4-2-3-1 · Norway 4-3-3
Morocco
- 1 Y. Bounou
- 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
- 14 I. Diop
- 18 C. Riad
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 6 A. Bouaddi
- 24 N. El Aynaoui
- 10 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 8 A. Ounahi
- 17 A. Ezzalzouli
- 11 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
Norway
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 3 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 17 T. Heggem
- 5 D. Wolfe
- 10 M. Ødegaard
- 8 S. Berge
- 14 F. Aursnes
- 7 A. Sørloth
- 9 E. Haaland
- 20 A. Nordby Nusa
Substitutes
- 21 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
- 23 B. El Khannous
- 28 M. Sbai
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 15 S. El Mourabet
- 20 A. El Kaabi
- 13 Z. El Ouahdi
- 29 A. Maamar
- 16 G. Yassine
- 27 M. Saadane
- 25 R. Halhal
- 9 S. Rahimi
- 19 Y. Belammari
- 12 M. Mohand Mohamedi
- 22 A. Tagnaouti
- 11 J. Strand Larsen
- 24 S. Langås
- 13 E. Selvik
- 22 O. Bobb
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 6 P. Berg
- 23 J. Hauge
- 15 F. Bjørkan
- 19 T. Aasgaard
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 25 H. Falchener
- 4 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 2 M. Thorsby
- 16 M. Pedersen
- 18 K. Thorstvedt
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →