Friendly International

France - Northern Ireland

06/08/2026, 07:10 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
France
2.0
Total xG
2.8
Northern Ireland
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FRANI

France

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.17
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 72, 70 places gap)
+0.14
Attack strength (1.51x league average)
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
-0.09

Northern Ireland

Defensive strength (0.4 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.68
Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.57
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.50
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 72 vs 2, 70 places gap)
-0.14
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    France: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    France with Kylian Mbappé: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    France: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    France: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

24%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • France's strong current form (4 wins in 5 games) and a home win probability of 63% according to the model
  • France's offensive dominance (averaging 63% possession, 5.6 shots on target) meets Northern Ireland's counter-attacking approach (38% possession, 2.8 shots on target)
  • France's consistent goal production (avg. 2.6 goals in recent games) compared to Northern Ireland's faltering offense (avg. 0.6 goals in recent games)
Risk Factors
  • Northern Ireland averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • France's home record shows an average of 2.0 goals conceded per home game
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head matches
Overview

France host Northern Ireland in a Friendly International match at Stade Pierre-Mauroy

The game is scheduled for June 8, 2026, 9:10 PM

This is an international friendly fixture

Form

France's current form across all competitions: WWWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team achieved 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches

Their most recent game was a 1-2 defeat against CĂŽte d'Ivoire

Northern Ireland's form across all competitions: LWLDW

The team recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

Their last outing resulted in a 1-0 victory against Guinea

Statistics

France averaged 2.0 goals scored per game this season and conceded 1.33 goals

Northern Ireland averaged 1.0 goals per match and conceded only 0.5 goals

In home games, France scored an average of 1.0 goals and conceded 2.0 goals

Northern Ireland scored 1.0 goals and conceded 1.0 goals in away games

At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, the last 5 games saw an average of 1.6 total goals

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between France and Northern Ireland

Key Players

For France, Ousmane Dembélé is notable with 6 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games and a rising form trend

Désiré Doué has 2 season goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games this season

Michael Olise showed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games with a rising form trend

For Northern Ireland, Isaac Price stands out with 1 goal in his last 5 games and a rising form trend

Shea Emmanuel Charles scored 1 goal in his last 5 games and has a rising form trend

Jamie Paul Donley has 1 goal this season

Goalkeepers

France's goalkeeper Mike Maignan has recorded 0 clean sheets this season

Northern Ireland's goalkeeper Pierce Joseph Charles has recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

The match will take place at Stade Pierre-Mauroy on grass

France's home strength is reflected in 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per home game

Northern Ireland's away record shows 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per away game

The stadium's history suggests generally low-scoring games, with an average of 1.6 goals per match

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