Match report →
France – Northern Ireland3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
France
1.97
Total xG
2.79
Northern Ireland
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | France | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.4 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.68 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 72 vs 2, 70 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 72, 70 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| Attack strength (1.51x league average) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- France's strong current form (4 wins in 5 games) and a home win probability of 63% according to the model
- France's offensive dominance (averaging 63% possession, 5.6 shots on target) meets Northern Ireland's counter-attacking approach (38% possession, 2.8 shots on target)
- France's consistent goal production (avg. 2.6 goals in recent games) compared to Northern Ireland's faltering offense (avg. 0.6 goals in recent games)
Risks
- Northern Ireland averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- France's home record shows an average of 2.0 goals conceded per home game
- Limited data availability for head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
France63%
Draw24%
Northern Ireland14%
Double chance
France or draw86%
Northern Ireland or draw37%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No51%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- France: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- France with Kylian Mbappé: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- France: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- France: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
France 4-2-3-1 · Northern Ireland 3-4-2-1
France
- 16 M. Maignan
- 5 J. Koundé
- 4 D. Upamecano
- 17 W. Saliba
- 19 T. Hernández
- 8 A. Tchouaméni
- 14 A. Rabiot
- 11 M. Olise
- 7 O. Dembélé
- 20 D. Doue
- 10 K. Mbappé
Northern Ireland
- 1 P. Charles
- 5 T. Hume
- 3 R. McConville
- 22 C. Brown
- 20 B. Spencer
- 16 A. McCann
- 19 S. Charles
- 15 J. Devenny
- 2 P. Kelly
- 14 I. Price
- 10 J. Donley
Substitutes
- 1 B. Samba
- 23 R. Risser
- 25 M. Akliouche
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 12 B. Barcola
- 18 W. Zaire Emery
- 3 L. Digne
- 26 M. Lacroix
- 22 J. Mateta
- 15 I. Konaté
- 24 M. Cherki
- 2 M. Gusto
- 9 M. Thuram
- 6 K. Kone
- 13 N. Kanté
- 8 C. Marshall
- 11 P. Smyth
- 18 J. Reid
- 7 E. William Galbraith
- 21 J. Magennis
- 12 L. Southwood
- 6 J. McDonnell
- 9 K. Morrison
- 17 B. Graham
- 13 C. O’Neill
- 23 J. Clarke
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