Friendly International

Panama - Dominican Republic

06/04/2026, 12:45 AM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Panama
1.7
Total xG
2.8
Dominican Republic
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
PANDR

Panama

Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.82
Standings advantage (pos 29 vs 142, 113 places gap)
+0.12
Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.10
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.03
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
58% of goal output missing (only 31% available)

Dominican Republic

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
+0.42
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.40
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.29
Standings disadvantage (pos 142 vs 29, 113 places gap)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Dorny Romero on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dominican Republic: 5 of 7 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

27%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Panama enters with a severely reduced squad strength; only 31% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is active
  • The Dominican Republic is also heavily impacted with only 0% of the usual starting XI's goal threat, notably due to the absence of Dorny Romero
  • Despite these squad issues, Panama is rated as the favorite with a home win probability of 53%
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for expected goals (xG) for the Dominican Republic and duel statistics for both teams in the last 5 matches
Overview

Panama hosts the Dominican Republic in a Friendly International match at the Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez on June 4, 2026, 2:45 AM CEST. This encounter offers both teams an opportunity to test their form and develop new tactics.

Form

Panama shows mixed form in their last five matches (DLDWL) with one win, two draws, and two losses. Their last game resulted in a 2-6 defeat against Brazil. The Dominican Republic also recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches (LLWDD). Their most recent match was a 1-1 draw against Cuba. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Panama averages 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game this season. Both teams scored in four out of five matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in two out of five matches. The Dominican Republic averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game. In both of their matches this season, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in one match. The Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez venue recorded an average of 1.0 total goals per game in its only fixture.

Head-to-Head

In their sole previous head-to-head encounter on June 9, 2021, Panama secured a 3-0 home victory. Panama scored all three goals in that match, while the Dominican Republic remained scoreless. Panama dominates the historical head-to-head record.

Key Players

For Panama, Jiovany Ramos is a key player, scoring one goal in two season appearances with an average rating of 6.85. César Yanis showed an average rating of 6.87 in one season appearance. Cristian Martínez has an average rating of 6.35 in three season appearances. For the Dominican Republic, Noah Dollenmayer is an important player with one goal in four games and an average rating of 6.72. Pablo Rosario has an average rating of 6.91 in three games, and Jean Carlos López has an average rating of 6.67 in three games.

Goalkeepers

Panama's goalkeeper César Samudio has no appearances and no clean sheets this season. Xavier Valdez, the Dominican Republic's goalkeeper, also has no season appearances and no clean sheets.

Influences

The Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez has an average of 1.0 total goals per game in its one recorded match. In this single game, both teams did not score, and there were no matches with over 2.5 goals.

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