Match report →
Panama – Dominican Republic4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Panama
1.75
Total xG
2.76
Dominican Republic
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Panama | Dominican Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.82 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | +0.42 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.40 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 142 vs 29, 113 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 29 vs 142, 113 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 58% of goal output missing (only 31% available) | ||
| Dorny Romero on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- Panama enters with a severely reduced squad strength; only 31% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is active
- The Dominican Republic is also heavily impacted with only 0% of the usual starting XI's goal threat, notably due to the absence of Dorny Romero
- Despite these squad issues, Panama is rated as the favorite with a home win probability of 53%
Risks
- Limited data availability for expected goals (xG) for the Dominican Republic and duel statistics for both teams in the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Panama53%
Draw27%
Dominican Republic20%
Double chance
Panama or draw80%
Dominican Republic or draw47%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dominican Republic: 5 of 7 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Panama 5-4-1 · Dominican Republic 4-2-3-1
Panama
- 12 C. Samudio Murillo
- 30 I. Anderson Hernández
- 5 E. Fariña
- 13 J. Ramos Díaz
- 25 R. Miller Molina
- 26 J. Gutiérrez Cornejo
- 21 C. Yanis Velasco
- 28 V. Griffith Mullins
- 6 C. Martinez
- 9 T. Rodríguez Mena
- 17 J. Fajardo Nelson
Dominican Republic
- 12 X. Valdez
- 13 B. Ademán Ruiz
- 23 L. de Lucas Pérez
- 5 N. Dollenmayer
- 3 M. Rodríguez Baldera
- 6 P. Rosario
- 14 J. López Moscoso
- 16 J. Pineda Torres
- 19 P. Gonzalez Carmona
- 11 E. Ureña
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
Substitutes
- 23 M. Murillo Bermudez
- 3 J. Cordoba Chambers
- 2 C. Blackman
- 16 A. Andrade Cedeño
- 1 J. Gunn
- 27 K. Barria
- 29 J. Murillo Morán
- 22 O. Mosquera
- 14 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 24 A. Londoño
- 15 E. Davis Grajales
- 11 E. Bárcenas Herrera
- 19 A. Quintero Medina
- 10 I. Díaz De León
- 18 C. Waterman Ruiz
- 7 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 4 F. Escobar Mendieta
- 17 D. Romero
- 22 A. Núñez
- 2 J. Urbáez
- 20 L. Bretón
- 7 E. Japa
- 1 M. Lloyd Troncoso
- 24 I. Boatwright
- 8 Y. Álvarez Víctor
- 15 A. Ovalle Santos
- 21 E. Frías Garçon
- 4 Alejandro López Tamarez
- 10 Adrián Jáquez
- 18 J. Báez Peña
- 25 A. Gómez de la Cruz
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