Friendly International
Ecuador - Guatemala
06/07/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.4
0.6
1:0
15%2:0
15%1:1
11%0:0
10%3:0
9%What influences the xG?
Ecuador
Guatemala
League
The Lab
- 1Ecuador: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- 2Ecuador with Enner Valencia: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- 3Ecuador: 5 of 7 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
66%
Draw
24%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
34%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Ecuador with a probability of 66% and expected goals of 1.84 to 0.60
- The absence of John Yeboah, who contributed 1 goal and 2 assists, significantly reduces Ecuador's goal threat to only 43% of the usual starting XI strength
- Ecuador's strong form of 5 games unbeaten (2 wins, 3 draws) contrasts with Guatemala's negative run of 3 losses in their last 4 matches
Risk Factors
- Guatemala averaged only 2.8 shots on target per game in their last 4 matches
- Lower.com Field, as the venue, showed an average of only 0.5 goals per game in the last 2 matches
Overview
Ecuador hosts Guatemala in a Friendly International at Lower.com Field on June 7, 2026, 9:00 PM
Form
Ecuador shows stable form in their last five matches with DWDDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The team achieved 2 wins and 3 draws
Their last encounter resulted in a 2-1 victory against Saudi Arabia
Guatemala displays weaker form with LDLL in their last four games
This includes 1 draw and 3 losses
Their last match was a 0-7 loss against Algeria, followed by a 1-3 loss against Czech Republic
Statistics
Ecuador averages 1.33 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1 goal per game
Both teams scored in 3 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored once
In home games, Ecuador averages 1 goal scored and 0.5 goals conceded
Guatemala averages 0.33 goals scored per game this season and concedes 3.67 goals per game
Both teams scored in 1 match, and over 2.5 goals were scored twice
In away games, Guatemala averages 0.33 goals scored and 3.67 goals conceded
At Lower.com Field, the last 2 games averaged 0.5 goals per match
In none of these matches did both teams score or were there over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
Historically, there has been one direct encounter between Ecuador and Guatemala
Ecuador won this match 2-0 on March 22, 2024
Key Players
Ecuador:
Jackson Porozo (Defender) scored 1 goal in 1 season appearance with an average rating of 7.22
In his last 5 games, he scored 1 goal in 473 minutes and shows stable form
Anthony Valencia (Attacker) scored 1 goal in 2 season appearances with an average rating of 6.98
In his last 2 games, he scored 1 goal in 137 minutes and shows stable form
Alan Minda (Attacker) scored 2 goals in his last 5 games in 287 minutes with an average rating of 6.89
Guatemala:
Matthew Evans (Midfielder) provided 1 assist in his last 3 games in 123 minutes with an average rating of 6.43
J. Morales (Defender) has an average rating of 5.76 in 2 season appearances
In his last 3 games, he had an average rating of 6.09 and shows rising form
J. Pinto (Defender) has an average rating of 6.08 in 2 season appearances
In his last 3 games, he had an average rating of 6.20 and shows stable form
Goalkeepers
Ecuador's goalkeeper, HernĂĄn GalĂndez, made 1 season appearance with an average rating of 6.93
Ecuador has not kept a clean sheet this season
Guatemala's goalkeeper, Nicholas Hagen, has no season appearances
Guatemala has not kept a clean sheet this season
Influences
Ecuador's home advantage is reflected in an average of 1 home goal scored and only 0.5 home goals conceded
Lower.com Field as a venue historically shows low goal numbers
An average of 0.5 goals per game have been scored there