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Ecuador – Guatemala3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Ecuador
1.84
Total xG
2.44
Guatemala
0.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ecuador | Guatemala |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.43x league average) | −0.77 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.74 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.67 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.51 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Standings advantage (pos 24 vs 98, 74 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 98 vs 24, 74 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| John Yeboah on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Ecuador with a probability of 66% and expected goals of 1.84 to 0.60
- The absence of John Yeboah, who contributed 1 goal and 2 assists, significantly reduces Ecuador's goal threat to only 43% of the usual starting XI strength
- Ecuador's strong form of 5 games unbeaten (2 wins, 3 draws) contrasts with Guatemala's negative run of 3 losses in their last 4 matches
Risks
- Guatemala averaged only 2.8 shots on target per game in their last 4 matches
- Lower.com Field, as the venue, showed an average of only 0.5 goals per game in the last 2 matches
All probabilities
Result
Ecuador66%
Draw24%
Guatemala10%
Double chance
Ecuador or draw90%
Guatemala or draw34%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes39%
No61%
Most likely scores
1:0
15%
2:0
15%
1:1
11%
0:0
10%
3:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ecuador: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Ecuador with Enner Valencia: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Ecuador: 5 of 7 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Ecuador 3-4-1-2 · Guatemala 5-4-1
Ecuador
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 25 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 2 F. Torres Caicedo
- 14 A. Minda García
- 5 J. Alcívar Macías
- 8 A. Valencia
- 26 Y. Medina Ortiz
- 24 J. Arévalo Mera
- 10 R. Páez Andrade
- 16 J. Caicedo Medina
Guatemala
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 7 A. Herrera
- 23 M. Hernández De León
- 4 J. Pinto Samayoa
- 3 N. Samayoa Pacheco
- 16 J. Morales Concua
- 8 M. Evans Wolff
- 5 J. Rosales Marroquín
- 22 J. Franco
- 19 W. Fajardo Montenegro
- 14 D. Lom
Substitutes
- 3 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 23 M. Caicedo Corozo
- 4 J. Ordóñez Guerrero
- 20 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 17 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 7 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 9 J. Zamora
- 12 W. Ramírez Preciado
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 15 P. Vite Uca
- 22 G. Valle Bustamante
- 12 L. Morán
- 2 J. Ardón Castellanos
- 6 K. Ramírez López
- 13 J. Bantes Rodríguez
- 17 O. Castellanos Santos
- 18 O. Santis Cayax
- 20 O. Escobar
- 10 A. Ordonez
- 9 D. Méndez Martínez
- 15 J. Méndez
- 24 A. Recinos
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