Friendly International

Sweden - Greece

06/04/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Sweden
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Greece
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

1:2

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
SWEGRE

Sweden

Attack strength (1.31x league average)
-1.18
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.98
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.31
Standings advantage (pos 32 vs 40, 8 places gap)
+0.06

Greece

Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-1.96
Attack strength (1.76x league average)
+1.94
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 40 vs 32, 8 places gap)
-0.08
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

28%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Sweden is calculated as the more likely winner with 52% probability.
  • Offensive Form: Sweden consistently scores, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
  • Defensive Strength: Greece recently concedes only 0.5 goals per game on average.
Risk Factors
  • Sweden had only 3 days of rest since their last match.
  • K. Karetsas is injured for Greece with an ankle injury.
Overview

Sweden host Greece in a Friendly International match at Strawberry Arena on June 4, 2026, 7:00 PM. The mathematical analysis places Sweden as a slight favorite with a 52% win probability.

Form

Sweden's form in their last three games is WWL, with two wins and one loss. Their most recent match was a loss.

Greece's form over their last three matches is WLD, comprising one win, one loss, and one draw. Their last result was a draw.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sweden has averaged 1.0 goal scored per game and 3.0 goals conceded per game this season. They have kept no clean sheets.

Greece has averaged 0.0 goals scored per game and 0.5 goals conceded per game. They have kept one clean sheet.

The Strawberry Arena, the venue for this match, typically sees an average of 4.5 total goals per game.

Both teams scored in 50% of matches at this venue, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 75% of games.

Head-to-Head

In two previous head-to-head encounters, Sweden and Greece have an even record. Both teams secured one victory each, with no draws.

Sweden holds a narrow advantage in goal difference, leading 3-2.

The last match between these two teams saw Sweden win 2-0 on October 12, 2021.

Key Players

For Sweden, Alexander Isak stands out with one season goal and an average rating of 7.54, while Benjamin Nygren has scored two goals in his last five games. Mattias Svanberg contributed one assist this season and shows a slightly declining form trend.

For Greece, Konstantinos Koulierakis has scored two goals in his last five games, and Andreas Tetteh has one goal in his last five games. Christos Tzolis also netted one goal in his last five appearances.

Goalkeepers

Sweden's goalkeeper is Kristoffer Nordfeldt.

Greece's goalkeeper is Konstantinos Tzolakis, who kept one clean sheet this season.

Sweden has not kept any clean sheets this season.

Influences

The Strawberry Arena is a high-scoring venue, averaging 4.5 total goals per game. Historically, both teams scored in 50% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were seen in 75% of games.

Sweden will play on grass, which could benefit the home team.

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