Match report →
Sweden – Greece2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sweden
1.65
Total xG
2.61
Greece
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sweden | Greece |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | −1.96 | |
| Attack strength (1.76x league average) | +1.94 | |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | −1.18 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.98 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 40 vs 32, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 32 vs 40, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Sweden is calculated as the more likely winner with 52% probability.
- Offensive Form: Sweden consistently scores, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
- Defensive Strength: Greece recently concedes only 0.5 goals per game on average.
Risks
- Sweden had only 3 days of rest since their last match.
- K. Karetsas is injured for Greece with an ankle injury.
All probabilities
Result
Sweden52%
Draw28%
Greece20%
Double chance
Sweden or draw80%
Greece or draw48%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:2
6%
3:0
6%
2:2
Final score
Lineups
Sweden 3-4-1-2 · Greece 3-4-2-1
Sweden
- 23 K. Nordfeldt
- 2 G. Lagerbielke
- 4 I. Hien
- 8 D. Svensson
- 21 A. Bernhardsson
- 19 M. Svanberg
- 18 Y. Ayari
- 5 G. Gudmundsson
- 10 B. Nygren
- 9 A. Isak
- 17 V. Gyökeres
Greece
- 12 K. Tzolakis
- 5 P. Retsos
- 4 K. Mavropanos
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 15 L. Rota
- 6 D. Kourmpelis
- 20 C. Zafeiris
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 16 A. Tetteh
- 10 C. Tzolis
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Substitutes
- 20 E. Smith
- 15 C. Starfelt
- 27 S. Nanasi
- 14 H. Ekdal
- 12 V. Johansson
- 1 J. Widell Zetterström
- 11 A. Elanga
- 7 L. Bergvall
- 13 K. Sema
- 25 G. Nilsson
- 26 T. Ali
- 16 J. Karlström
- 22 B. Zeneli
- 6 H. Johansson
- 24 E. Stroud
- 11 C. Kostoulas
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 17 P. Hatzidiakos
- 8 C. Mouzakitis
- 2 G. Vagiannidis
- 18 S. Kontouris
- 19 G. Kiriakopoulos
- 13 C. Mandas
- 9 A. Douvikas
- 25 A. Ntoi
- 7 G. Masouras
- 23 N. Triantis
- 24 T. Androutsos
- 26 A. Kiziridis
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