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Liga MX

Atlas - Cruz Azul

05/03/2026, 03:15 AM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Atlas
0.7
Total xG
2.3
Cruz Azul
1.6
Most Likely Scores

0:1

15%

0:2

13%

1:1

13%

0:0

12%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
ATLCA

Atlas

Attack weakness (0.45x league average)
-1.31
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (0.7 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.20
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.08
Arturo GonzĂĄlez on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
Gaddi Aguirre on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

Cruz Azul

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.08
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.04
Gabriel FernĂĄndez not in squad (14 goals, 7 assists)
Jeremy MĂĄrquez on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruz Azul with Amaury GarcĂ­a: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Cruz Azul: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Atlas with Mateo GarcĂ­a: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

14%

Draw

28%

Away Win

58%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

42%

Away or Draw

86%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Cruz Azul is significantly higher in the league table with 3rd place and 35 points compared to Atlas (14th place, 17 points)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Cruz Azul with a probability of 58%
  • Cruz Azul displayed a possession-dominant style in the last 5 games (59% possession) with an average of 4.8 shots on target, while Atlas played counter-attacking football with an average of 2.2 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Atlas's goal production is stagnant (0.7 goals in recent games) compared to their season average (1.3 goals)
  • Cruz Azul's goal production is stagnant (1.6 goals in recent games) compared to their season average (1.9 goals)
  • The historical tendency in head-to-head matches shows many draws (4 out of 5 matches ended in a draw)
Overview

Atlas (14th place, 17 points) hosts Cruz Azul (3rd place, 35 points) in Liga MX on May 3, 2026, 3:15 AM

Cruz Azul aims to solidify its top position and close the gap to the league leaders

Atlas is struggling at the bottom of the table and urgently needs points to move away from the relegation zone

Form

Atlas has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches (Form: LDWDW)

Atlas's last game was a 1-0 away win against América

Cruz Azul has one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches (Form: LDDDW)

Cruz Azul's last game was a 4-1 home win against Necaxa

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Atlas has scored an average of 1.18 goals per game and conceded 1.56 goals per game this season

At home, Atlas averages 1.19 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded

Cruz Azul has scored an average of 1.79 goals per game and conceded 1.11 goals per game this season

Away from home, Cruz Azul averages 1.81 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded

Atlas has kept 10 clean sheets this season, and Cruz Azul also has 10 clean sheets

For Atlas, 17 games ended with both teams scoring, compared to 27 games for Cruz Azul

Head-to-Head

The last five head-to-head encounters saw four draws and one win for Cruz Azul

Cruz Azul scored a total of 10 goals, while Atlas scored 8 goals in these matches

The last duel on January 14, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for Cruz Azul

Cruz Azul has shown recent dominance in direct matchups

Key Players

For Atlas, Diego GonzĂĄlez is a central figure with 6 goals and 7 assists this season

Manuel Capasso, a defender, recently showed rising form, scoring 1 goal in the last 5 games with a season average rating of 7.2

Goalkeeper Camilo Vargas shows a rising form in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.14

For Cruz Azul, José Paradela stands out with 9 goals and 8 assists this season

Carlos Rotondi provided 7 assists this season, with 3 of them coming in the last 5 games

AgustĂ­n Palavecino contributed 5 goals and 3 assists this season, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Camilo Vargas, Atlas's goalkeeper, has played in 31 matches and kept 10 clean sheets

Kevin Mier, Cruz Azul's goalkeeper, has played 20 matches and kept 10 clean sheets

Influences

Atlas averages 1.19 goals scored per home game and concedes 1.05 goals

Cruz Azul performs well away from home, averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded

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