🇲🇽

Liga MX

Tigres UANL - Guadalajara

05/03/2026, 01:00 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Tigres UANL
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Guadalajara
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:1

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

11%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
TUGUA

Tigres UANL

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.89
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.53
Rising form (2.5 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
-0.02
Ozziel Herrera not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)

Guadalajara

Rising form (2.7 vs 2 season average)
+0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.10
Armando González not in squad (24 goals, 2 assists)
Roberto Alvarado not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
Daniel Aguirre Domínguez not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Brian Gutiérrez not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Luis Romo not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 57% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Guadalajara with José Castillo Pérez: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Guadalajara: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Tigres UANL with Diego Sánchez: 7.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Tigres UANL: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 5
    Guadalajara: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

34%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a Tigres UANL home win with 37% probability
  • Tigres Home Strength: Tigres UANL averages 1.8 goals scored at home while conceding only 0.6 goals per game
  • Head-to-Head: Tigres UANL won the last direct encounter against Guadalajara 4-1 and has been dominant in recent matchups
Risk Factors
  • Critical absences for Guadalajara: Only 57% of usual starting XI goal threat is available, with missing players such as Armando González (24 goals, 2 assists) and Roberto Alvarado (4 goals, 5 assists)
  • High draw probability: The mathematical analysis indicates a relatively high 34% probability for a draw
  • Low goal expectation: The model predicts 1.07 expected home goals and 0.93 expected away goals, suggesting a potentially low-scoring match
Overview

Tigres UANL (2nd place, 36 points) host Guadalajara (6th place, 29 points) in Liga MX on May 3, 2026, 3:00 AM. Tigres are in the race for the top spot, while Guadalajara aims for a playoff position.

Form

Tigres UANL's form over the last five games is WDDLW, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. The team won its last match.

Guadalajara's form over the last five games is DLWDD, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. Guadalajara last drew two consecutive matches.

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Tigres UANL averages 1.8 goals scored per game and concedes 1.03 goals per game over the season. At home, they score 1.8 goals and concede only 0.6 goals per home game.

Guadalajara averages 1.78 goals scored per game and concedes 1.17 goals per game. Away, the team scores 1.79 goals and concedes 1.79 goals per away game.

Tigres UANL kept 14 clean sheets, while Guadalajara managed 13. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 20 of Tigres UANL's matches and in 22 of Guadalajara's matches.

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres UANL secured 2 wins, Guadalajara had 0 wins, and there were 3 draws. Tigres UANL scored a total of 7 goals, while Guadalajara scored 3 goals. The last encounter on April 11, 2026, saw Tigres UANL win 4-1 at home. Tigres UANL has been the more dominant team in recent direct clashes.

Key Players

For Tigres UANL, Ángel Correa (16 goals, 12 assists) and Juan Brunetta (18 goals, 8 assists) are crucial. Ángel Correa shows rising form with 3 goals and 5 assists in the last 5 games. Juan Brunetta scored 4 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games, also showing rising form. Diego Lainez (6 goals, 7 assists) shows declining form with 0 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games.

Not nominated: Ozziel Herrera (7G/4A), Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva (2G/1A).

For Guadalajara, Bryan Alonso González Oliván (6 goals, 5 assists) and Efraín Álvarez (3 goals, 7 assists) are important players. Bryan Alonso González Oliván is in rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Efraín Álvarez scored 0 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing rising form. Richard Ledezma (1 goal, 8 assists) contributed 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and shows stable form.

Goalkeepers

Tigres UANL's goalkeeper, Nahuel Guzmán, played in 40 season appearances and kept 14 clean sheets. Guadalajara's goalkeeper, Óscar Alexánder Whalley Guardado, made 2 season appearances. Guadalajara recorded a total of 13 clean sheets.

Influences

Tigres UANL's home performance shows strong offense with an average of 1.8 goals scored and solid defense with only 0.6 goals conceded per game. Guadalajara, however, concedes an average of 1.79 goals per away game.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.