La Liga
Sevilla - Deportivo Alavés
02/14/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.9
1.5
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
28%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Alavés' glaring away weakness, conceding an average of 2.29 goals per game, is a decisive factor
- The historical record clearly favors Alavés, who have won 3 of the last 5 direct encounters
- The mathematical model suggests a very open match, with a slight edge for Alavés (38% win probability) and expected goals for both sides (1.40 to 1.50)
Risk Factors
- Both teams are showing very inconsistent form, making a prediction difficult
- Sevilla's defense, conceding 1.65 goals per game this season, is a constant vulnerability
- The available data on chance quality (xG) in recent matches is limited for both teams
Overview
Sevilla (14th place, 25 points) host Deportivo Alavés (15th place, 25 points) at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
La Liga match on February 14, 2026, 6:30 PM
A direct duel between two teams level on points in the lower mid-table
Form
Sevilla's form from the last five matches (all competitions) is LDWLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Alavés' form is LWWLL (2 wins, 3 losses), having lost their last two games
In the league, Sevilla's form is LLWDW, while Alavés' is WLDWL
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Sevilla scores an average of 1.3 goals per game and concedes 1.65 goals
Alavés averages 0.87 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per game
Particularly noteworthy is Alavés' weakness away from home, conceding an average of 2.29 goals per away match
Both teams scored in 14 of Sevilla's 23 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alavés has the upper hand with 3 wins to Sevilla's 1 (1 draw)
The goal difference is also in favor of Alavés at 8:6
The last encounter was won by Alavés with a score of 1-0
Key Players
For Sevilla, Akor Adams is a key offensive player with 6 season goals and 3 assists, and his form is rising
Defender Kike Salas recently got on the scoresheet
For Alavés, Lucas Boyé (5 season goals) and Toni Martínez (4 season goals) are the most dangerous attackers
Goalkeepers
In goal for Sevilla is Odysseas Vlachodimos; his team has kept 4 clean sheets this season
For Alavés, Antonio Sivera is the goalkeeper; his team has managed 3 clean sheets
Influences
The home advantage for Sevilla seems significant, as Alavés is very vulnerable on the road, conceding 2.29 goals per game
At the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, games average 2.6 goals, and 60% of recent matches have ended with over 2.5 goals