Liga MX
Pumas UNAM - América
05/11/2026, 01:15 AM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.4
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
10%1:0
9%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Pumas UNAM
América
League
The Lab
- 1Pumas UNAM: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2América with Ramón Juárez: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3América: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 4Pumas UNAM: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 5Pumas UNAM with Tony Leone: 6.3 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
31%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Pumas' recent offensive surge: Pumas UNAM is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals) than their season average (1.8 goals)
- Tight match prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with home win (35%), draw (31%), and away win (34%) probabilities
- Home team's tactical approach: Pumas UNAM showed ball-possession dominance (58% possession) and high shots on target (Ø 6.0 shots on target) in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
- High draw probability: The mathematical model predicts a high probability for a draw (31%)
- América's recent defensive vulnerability: América conceded an average of 1.6 goals in recent matches, higher than their season average of 1.11
- Pumas conceded 3 goals in their last direct encounter with América
Overview
Pumas UNAM (10th place, 21 points) host América (4th place, 34 points) in a Liga MX clash on May 11, 2026, 3:15 AM. The hosts are fighting for a top-10 spot, while América aims to solidify their position among the league's elite.
Form
Pumas UNAM is in excellent form with a WWWWD streak. The team recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches. América shows DWWLD form, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Pumas UNAM scores an average of 1.72 goals and concedes 1.33 goals per game this season. At home, they are solid with an average of 1.76 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per home game. Pumas UNAM is currently scoring more frequently (2.8 goals) than their season average (1.8 goals). América averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded per match. Away from home, they score an average of 1.56 goals and concede 1.31 goals. América consistently scores (~1.7 goals per game).
Head-to-Head
The last 5 head-to-head matches between Pumas UNAM and América have been evenly balanced. Both teams secured 2 wins, with 1 match ending in a draw. Pumas UNAM scored 6 goals, while América scored 9. Their last encounter on May 03, 2026, ended in a 3:3 draw.
Key Players
For Pumas UNAM, Robert Morales (8 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.12) with rising form and Jordán Carrillo (4 goals, 3 assists, avg 7.13) also with rising form stand out. Juninho (8 goals, 3 assists, avg 6.94) is another important player with stable form. For América, Brian Rodríguez (13 goals, 6 assists, avg 7.32) with rising form, Álex Zendejas (10 goals, 6 assists, avg 7.29), and Isaías Violante (2 goals, 4 assists, avg 6.75) are significant.
Goalkeepers
Pumas UNAM's goalkeeper, Keylor Navas, made 33 appearances this season, keeping 10 clean sheets. For América, Rodolfo Cota played in 11 season matches and achieved 11 clean sheets.
Influences
Pumas UNAM displays strong offensive performance at home with an average of 1.76 goals scored. The home team conceded an average of 1.12 goals per home game.