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Liga MX

Pachuca - Toluca

05/10/2026, 11:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Pachuca
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Toluca
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
PACTOL

Pachuca

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.69
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.47
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap)
-0.10
Salomón Rondón on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)

Toluca

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.07
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap)
+0.04
Alexis Vega not in squad (4 goals, 12 assists)
Antonio Briseño on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Sebastián Córdova on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Fernando Arce on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 82% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Pachuca with Sergio Lenin Rodriguez: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Toluca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Toluca with Pável Pérez: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Pachuca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Toluca: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

32%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a narrow away win for Toluca with a 36% probability and 1.16 expected goals
  • Toluca is in 1st place in Liga MX with 37 points, while Pachuca is in 9th place with 22 points
  • Toluca demonstrates strong offensive performance this season with an average of 1.90 goals per game, compared to Pachuca's 1.38 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Toluca's current away form is weak, with only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
  • The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of a draw at 32%
Overview

Pachuca (9th place, 22 points) host Toluca (1st place, 37 points) in a Liga MX match

May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM

Toluca aims to maintain their lead, while Pachuca seeks to climb the standings

Form

Pachuca's recent form across all competitions is WWLLW

Toluca's form is DLLWL

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Pachuca recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding 8

Toluca recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 9

Statistics

Pachuca averages 1.38 goals scored per game and concedes 1.16 goals per game this season

They kept 8 clean sheets

Toluca averages 1.90 goals scored per game and concedes 1.00 goals per game

They kept 13 clean sheets

Pachuca's current goal scoring (1.8) is higher than their season average (1.5)

Toluca's goal production has slowed (1.8) compared to their season average (2.2)

In home games, Pachuca averages 1.37 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded

In away games, Toluca averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 20 of Pachuca's games and 23 of Toluca's games

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 19 of Pachuca's games and 21 of Toluca's games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Pachuca has 1 win, Toluca has 1 win, and there have been 3 draws

Both teams scored 8 goals in these encounters

The last match on May 4, 2026, ended in a 1:0 victory for Pachuca

The recent dominance in direct duels is described as even

Key Players

For Pachuca, V. Guzmán Guzmán is an important midfielder with 5 season goals and 7 assists, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 games and showing a rising form trend

Enner Valencia, an attacker, has 7 season goals and 1 assist, with 3 goals in his last 5 games and a stable form trend

Kenedy, also an attacker, has 8 season goals and 2 assists with stable form

Not nominated for Pachuca: Salomón Rondón (5G/0A)

For Toluca, Nicolás Castro is a midfielder with 5 season goals and 8 assists, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 games

Marcel Ruiz, another midfielder, has 3 season goals and 4 assists, contributing 1 assist in his last 5 games

Jorge Díaz, also in midfield, has 2 season goals and 3 assists, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Not nominated for Toluca: Alexis Vega (4G/12A), Antonio Briseño (3G/1A), Sebastián Córdova (1G/2A), Fernando Arce (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Pachuca's goalkeeper is Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna, who kept 8 clean sheets this season

Toluca's goalkeeper is Luis García, who kept 13 clean sheets this season

Influences

Pachuca averages 1.37 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded in home games

Toluca averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded in away games

No specific venue history or weather data is available

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