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Liga MX

Cruz Azul - Atlas

05/10/2026, 03:15 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Cruz Azul
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Atlas
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CAATL

Cruz Azul

Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.02
Gabriel Fernández on the bench (14 goals, 7 assists)
Jeremy Márquez on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

Atlas

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.50
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.10
Diego González on the bench (6 goals, 7 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlas with Gaddi Aguirre: 0.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Cruz Azul with Jorge Luis Rodarte Barragán: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Atlas: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Cruz Azul: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Atlas: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

27%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis sees Cruz Azul as favorites for a home win with a 58% probability
  • Cruz Azul showed possession dominance in their last 5 games with an average of 5.6 shots on target. Atlas, on the other hand, played counter-attacking football with an average of 2.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Cruz Azul is unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 wins, 3 draws) and won the last head-to-head match against Atlas 3-2
Risk Factors
  • Atlas concedes an average of 2.58 goals per away game
  • Atlas averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Cruz Azul (3rd place, 35 points) host Atlas (14th place, 17 points) in Liga MX on May 10, 2026, 3:15 AM. Cruz Azul aims to solidify their position in the top group, while Atlas fights to catch up with the mid-table teams. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Cruz Azul with a probability of 58%.

Form

Cruz Azul shows good form with a record of D D D W W. In their last five matches, the team achieved 2 wins and 3 draws, with their last game against Atlas ending in a 3-2 victory. Prior to that, they secured a 4-1 win against Necaxa. Atlas's last five matches show a form of D W D W L. This translates to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with their most recent match against Cruz Azul resulting in a 2-3 defeat. Before that, Atlas secured a 1-0 away win against América.

Statistics

Cruz Azul averages 1.82 goals and concedes 1.13 goals per game this season. The team recorded 10 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 28 matches. 21 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. At home, Cruz Azul averages 1.86 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded. Atlas averages 1.2 goals and 1.6 goals conceded per game this season. They have 10 clean sheets, both teams scored in 18 matches, and 17 matches had over 2.5 goals. Away from home, Atlas scores 1.25 goals and concedes an average of 2.58 goals per game.

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters between the two teams, Cruz Azul has 2 wins and Atlas has 0 wins, with 3 matches ending in a draw. The goal difference is 11:8 in favor of Cruz Azul. The last meeting on May 3, 2026, saw Cruz Azul win 3-2. Cruz Azul has been more dominant in recent head-to-head matches.

Key Players

For Cruz Azul, José Paradela with 9 goals and 9 assists and a stable form trend is crucial. Carlos Rotondi contributed 5 goals and 7 assists, showing a rising form trend. Agustín Palavecino scored 5 goals and 3 assists, but his form is declining. For Atlas, Arturo González is the top scorer with 7 goals and shows stable form. Manuel Capasso with 2 goals shows a rising form. Aldo Rocha with 1 goal and 2 assists also has a rising form. Not named to the squad for Cruz Azul are Gabriel Fernández (14 goals/7 assists) and Jeremy Márquez (5 goals/1 assist). For Atlas, Diego González (6 goals/7 assists) is not named.

Goalkeepers

Kevin Mier is in goal for Cruz Azul. Cruz Azul has achieved 10 clean sheets this season, with 6 of those in home games. On the other side, Camilo Vargas guards the goal for Atlas. Atlas also recorded 10 clean sheets overall, with 3 achieved in away games.

Influences

Cruz Azul benefits from a significant home advantage, averaging 1.86 home goals scored and only 0.95 home goals conceded per game. Atlas appears more vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.58 goals per away game.

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