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Liga MX

Guadalajara - Tigres UANL

05/10/2026, 01:07 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Guadalajara
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Tigres UANL
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
GUATU

Guadalajara

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.34
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
-0.30
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Armando González not in squad (24 goals, 2 assists)
Roberto Alvarado not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
Daniel Aguirre Domínguez not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Brian Gutiérrez not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Luis Romo not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
53% of goal output missing (only 62% available)

Tigres UANL

Attack strength (1.23x league average)
-0.52
Rising form (3.2 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.35
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.16
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.05
Diego Lainez on the bench (6 goals, 7 assists)
Ozziel Herrera not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Fernando Gorriarán not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Guadalajara with José Castillo Pérez: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Tigres UANL with Diego Sánchez: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Guadalajara: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Guadalajara: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 5
    Guadalajara: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

30%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Guadalajara is expected to win at home with a 50% probability
  • Form and league position: Tigres UANL is in better form (3 wins, 2 draws) and holds 2nd place in the league
  • Head-to-head dominance: Tigres UANL dominated recent encounters with 2 wins and 3 draws from 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Guadalajara has only 63% of their usual starting XI goal threat available, without Armando González, Roberto Alvarado, Daniel Aguirre Domínguez, Brian Gutiérrez, Luis Romo
Overview

Guadalajara (6th place, 29 points) hosts Tigres UANL (2nd place, 36 points) in Liga MX on May 9, 2026, 8:07 PM

Guadalajara aims to improve its standing, while Tigres UANL looks to solidify its top table position

The mathematical analysis suggests a home win for Guadalajara with a 50% probability

Form

The home team, Guadalajara, has a form of LWDDL in their last five matches across all competitions

This translates to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Their last result was a loss against Tigres UANL

The away team, Tigres UANL, shows a form of WDDWW in their last five matches

This corresponds to 3 wins and 2 draws

Tigres UANL secured a win in their last outing

According to advanced stats, both teams show a positive trend in their recent goal-scoring rates

Statistics

Guadalajara scores an average of 1.77 home goals per game and concedes 0.77 home goals

Overall this season, Guadalajara has seen both teams score in 19 matches and over 2.5 goals in 23 matches

Tigres UANL scores an average of 1.80 goals away and concedes 1.73 goals per away game

Overall this season, Tigres UANL has seen both teams score in 24 matches and over 2.5 goals in 21 matches

The pipeline analysis predicts a 47% chance for both teams to score and 42% for over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara has 0 wins, Tigres UANL has 2 wins, and there were 3 draws

The goal difference is 4:9 in favor of Tigres UANL

The last encounter on May 3, 2026, ended in a 3-1 victory for Tigres UANL

Tigres UANL has been the more dominant side in recent meetings

Key Players

For Guadalajara, Bryan Alonso González Oliván is a key player with 6 season goals and 5 assists

His form is rising, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, holding an average rating of 7.20

Efraín Álvarez has contributed 3 goals and 7 assists this season

Ricardo Marín added 3 goals and 2 assists, with 2 goals in his last 5 appearances

For Tigres UANL, Juan Brunetta is crucial with 19 goals and 9 assists this season

His form is rising, with 5 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games, with a rating of 8.26

Ángel Correa has scored 16 goals and provided 12 assists, contributing 3 goals and 5 assists in the last 5 matches

Rodrigo Aguirre has 1 season goal and 2 assists, including 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Not selected for Tigres UANL are Diego Lainez (6G/7A), Ozziel Herrera (7G/4A), Fernando Gorriarán (1G/3A), and Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva (2G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Guadalajara's goalkeeper Óscar Alexánder Whalley Guardado has made 3 appearances this season

Tigres UANL's goalkeeper Nahuel Guzmán has made 41 appearances

Guadalajara has recorded 13 clean sheets this season, with 9 of those in home games

Tigres UANL has 14 clean sheets this season, with 4 of those in away games

Influences

Guadalajara shows strong offensive performance at home with an average of 1.77 goals per home game and solid defense conceding only 0.77 goals

Tigres UANL scores an average of 1.80 goals away but also concedes 1.73 goals per away game

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