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Liga MX

América - Pumas UNAM

05/03/2026, 11:00 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
América
1.1
Total xG
2.1
Pumas UNAM
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

12%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
AMÉPU

América

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.83
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.58
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 10, 6 places gap)
+0.03
Brian Rodríguez not in squad (13 goals, 6 assists)
Raphael Veiga on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Israel Reyes not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Jonathan dos Santos on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Ramón Juárez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 69% available)

Pumas UNAM

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.26
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 4, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Alan Medina not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    América: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Pumas UNAM: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    América with Ramón Juárez: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Pumas UNAM: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 5
    Pumas UNAM: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

33%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Pumas UNAM's strong recent form, with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, supported by a positive offensive trend of 2.6 goals on average compared to their season average of 1.7
  • Pumas UNAM's recent head-to-head dominance over América, securing 3 wins in their last 5 direct encounters, including the most recent match
  • The tight win probabilities from the pipeline (América 37%, Draw 33%, Pumas UNAM 30%) suggest a highly competitive and finely balanced match
Risk Factors
  • América's offensive strength is significantly reduced due to key player absences, with only 70% of their usual active goal share available
  • América's recent goal production shows a negative trend, averaging 1.4 goals in their latest matches compared to their season average of 1.6
  • América's recent home loss to Atlas (0-1) indicates a potential vulnerability at home despite their overall strong home record
Overview

América (4th place, 34 points) hosts Pumas UNAM (10th place, 21 points) in a Liga MX clash on May 3, 2026, 5:00 PM

The hosts aim to solidify their position in the top ranks

Form

América's form in the last five games is DDWWL (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Their last match resulted in a loss

Pumas UNAM is in very strong form in their last five matches with DWWWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses)

The visitors have won their last four games and are showing an upward trend

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

América scores an average of 1.53 goals per game and concedes 1.06 goals per game this season

In home games, the average is 1.5 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded per match

The team kept 11 clean sheets in total, with 7 of them at home

Pumas UNAM scores an average of 1.69 goals per game and concedes 1.29 goals per game

Away from home, they score an average of 1.71 goals and concede 1.53 goals per game

They kept 10 clean sheets in total, with 5 of them away from home

Both teams scored in 19 of América's games, while this happened in 23 of Pumas UNAM's games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Pumas UNAM leads with 3 wins compared to 2 for América

The goal difference is 7:5 in favor of América

The last encounter was won by Pumas UNAM on March 22, 2026, with a score of 1:0

Key Players

For América, Álex Zendejas with 9 goals and 6 assists at an average rating of 7.28, Érick Sánchez with 3 goals and a rating of 6.98, and Rodrigo Dourado with 1 assist and a rating of 6.97 are key players

For Pumas UNAM, Robert Morales with 8 goals and 2 assists at a rating of 7.18, goalkeeper Keylor Navas with a rating of 7.07, and Jordán Carrillo with 3 goals and 2 assists at a rating of 7.06 stand out

Not nominated for Pumas UNAM is Alan Medina (4 goals, 4 assists)

Goalkeepers

América's Rodolfo Cota, with 10 season appearances, faces Pumas UNAM's Keylor Navas, who has 32 appearances

América kept a total of 11 clean sheets this season, while Pumas UNAM finished 10 games without conceding a goal

Influences

América has a solid home record with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded

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