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Liga MX

Toluca - Pachuca

05/04/2026, 01:15 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Toluca
2.1
Total xG
3.1
Pachuca
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
TOLPAC

Toluca

Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap)
+0.08
Alexis Vega not in squad (4 goals, 12 assists)
Antonio Briseño not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Fernando Arce on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 67% available)
Strong home record (2.8 vs 2.2 goals/match)

Pachuca

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap)
-0.09
Brian García not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Salomón Rondón not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Pachuca: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Toluca: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Toluca: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Pachuca with Sergio Lenin Rodriguez: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Toluca: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

23%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 61% probability
  • Toluca is the league leader with a strong home record, averaging 1.92 goals per home game
  • Toluca tactically dominates in possession (60%) and shots on target (Avg. 6.6 shots on target)
Risk Factors
  • Toluca is missing key players such as Alexis Vega, Antonio Briseño, and Fernando Arce, with only 67% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
  • Toluca's recent goal production has declined (averaging 1.8 goals), compared to their season average (2.2 goals)
  • Pachuca is currently scoring more frequently (averaging 2.0 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals), indicating a positive form trend
Overview

Toluca (1st place, 37 points) hosts Pachuca (9th place, 22 points) in Liga MX on May 4, 2026, 2:15 AM

The hosts lead the table and aim to extend their lead

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Toluca shows a negative trend with form LDLLW in their last five matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

The team recently lost 0-1 away against Querétaro

Pachuca, on the other hand, has a form of WWWLL in their last five matches (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

The visitors recently lost 1-3 away against Tijuana

Statistics

Toluca averages 1.95 goals per game and concedes 1.0 goals per game this season

At home, they average 1.92 goals scored and 0.84 goals conceded per home game

Pachuca averages 1.39 goals per game and 1.19 goals conceded per game this season

Away from home, Pachuca scores 1.41 goals and concedes 1.41 goals per away game

Toluca kept 13 clean sheets this season, Pachuca 7 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 23 of Toluca's games and 20 of Pachuca's games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Toluca recorded 2 wins

Pachuca had 0 wins, while 3 matches ended in a draw

Toluca scored 11 goals, Pachuca 9 goals

The last encounter on March 22, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

For Toluca, Marcel Ruiz is important with 3 goals and 4 assists, and a season average rating of 7.28

Jesús Angulo contributed 7 goals and 5 assists with an average rating of 7.02

Sebastián Córdova scored 1 goal and 2 assists and shows a rising form trend

For Pachuca, Kenedy with 8 goals and 2 assists and Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán with 5 goals and 7 assists are notable

Enner Valencia contributed 6 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Luis García is Toluca's goalkeeper with an average rating of 6.95 and 18 appearances

Toluca kept a total of 13 clean sheets this season, with 5 of them in home games

Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna, Pachuca's goalkeeper, made 35 appearances with an average rating of 6.91

Pachuca kept 7 clean sheets this season, with 3 of them in away games

Influences

Toluca shows a strong offense at home, averaging 1.92 goals scored per home game

The home team is defensively solid with only 0.84 goals conceded per home game

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